Compendium › Penelope Swing › MRNA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MRNA
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

2024-02-09 14:40:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 23 trades executed

+10.11%
2 Years Return
$11,009.89
Current Value
72%
Win Rate
$9,998.73
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-24 18:29:41

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

24
Lifetime
Confidence: 68%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
4.6/35
Total Return
8.7/25
Win Rate
11.1/15
Profit Factor
4.0/15
Consistency
6.5/10
Raw Quality 34.9/100
× Confidence 0.68 = 23.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (68%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
63,266
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$9,998.73
Current Value
$11,009.89
Total P&L
$1,011.18
Max Drawdown
-7.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.27

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
18
Winners / Losers
13 / 5
Best Trade
+3.91%
Worst Trade
-5.33%
Avg Trade Return
+0.56%
Avg Hold Time
2.2h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$372,826.00
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,011.18
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,011.18
Gross Return
+10.11%
Net Return (after fees)
+10.11%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $9,998.73 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 15, 2024 9:30am ET $38.30 261 $9,996.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 15, 2024 12:00pm ET $36.26 261 $9,463.86 $9,466.29 $-532.44
(-5.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.5h held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2025 10:10am ET $44.24 213 $9,423.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2025 12:20pm ET $43.75 213 $9,318.75 $9,361.92 $-104.37
(-1.1%) 		RESISTANCE
2.2h held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2025 9:30am ET $32.52 287 $9,331.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2025 11:40am ET $33.42 287 $9,591.54 $9,621.66 +$259.74
(+2.8%) 		RESISTANCE
2.2h held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 24, 2025 10:00am ET $41.74 230 $9,600.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 24, 2025 11:30am ET $42.87 230 $9,860.10 $9,881.56 +$259.90
(+2.7%) 		RESISTANCE
1.5h held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2025 10:25am ET $34.37 287 $9,862.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2025 12:00pm ET $35.71 287 $10,248.77 $10,267.57 +$386.02
(+3.9%) 		RESISTANCE
1.6h held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 11, 2025 10:35am ET $33.00 311 $10,263.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2025 11:30am ET $33.60 311 $10,449.60 $10,454.17 +$186.60
(+1.8%) 		RESISTANCE
54m held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET $27.80 376 $10,452.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2025 11:20am ET $27.86 376 $10,473.48 $10,474.85 +$20.68
(+0.2%) 		RESISTANCE
1.8h held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2025 9:35am ET $24.96 419 $10,458.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2025 11:25am ET $24.46 419 $10,248.74 $10,265.35 $-209.50
(-2.0%) 		RESISTANCE
1.8h held
9 🟢 BUY May 6, 2025 1:35pm ET $24.72 415 $10,258.80 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2025 2:50pm ET $24.81 415 $10,294.08 $10,300.63 +$35.28
(+0.3%) 		RESISTANCE
1.3h held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 1, 2025 9:30am ET $27.15 379 $10,289.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 1, 2025 11:30am ET $27.18 379 $10,301.22 $10,312.00 +$11.37
(+0.1%) 		RESISTANCE
2h held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 9:35am ET $48.01 214 $10,274.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 11:15am ET $48.64 214 $10,408.94 $10,446.79 +$134.80
(+1.3%) 		RESISTANCE
1.7h held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 2:20pm ET $42.24 247 $10,434.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET $43.74 247 $10,803.78 $10,816.33 +$369.54
(+3.5%) 		RESISTANCE
19.2h held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 10:05am ET $48.97 220 $10,773.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 10:10am ET $49.49 220 $10,887.80 $10,930.73 +$114.40
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 18, 2026 9:50am ET $61.05 179 $10,927.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 9:55am ET $61.33 179 $10,977.18 $10,979.96 +$49.23
(+0.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 10:05am ET $59.62 184 $10,970.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 10:10am ET $59.23 184 $10,898.30 $10,908.18 $-71.78
(-0.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
16 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:15am ET $69.88 156 $10,901.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 10:20am ET $69.74 156 $10,879.44 $10,886.34 $-21.84
(-0.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 9:40am ET $141.58 76 $10,760.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 9:45am ET $142.51 76 $10,830.76 $10,957.02 +$70.68
(+0.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 11:50am ET $145.73 75 $10,929.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 11:55am ET $146.43 75 $10,982.25 $11,009.89 +$52.87
(+0.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,009.89
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,009.89
Total Return: +10.10%
Back to Penelope Swing