Compendium › Penelope Swing › MU
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MU
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 20 trades executed

-7.85%
2 Years Return
$9,214.90
Current Value
55%
Win Rate
$10,000.00
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:46:06

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

7
Lifetime
Confidence: 62%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.6/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 10.6/100
× Confidence 0.62 = 6.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (62%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
73,744
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
520 days
Data Gaps
2 days with gaps

Data Gap Notice

The following dates had fewer candles than expected. This could be due to early market closes, API rate limits during data collection, or low volume periods. Simulation results may be slightly affected.

2024-11-29 (no data), 2025-11-28 (no data)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,000.00
Current Value
$9,214.90
Total P&L
$-785.11
Max Drawdown
-11.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.11

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
20
Winners / Losers
11 / 9
Best Trade
+7.73%
Worst Trade
-5.58%
Avg Trade Return
-0.36%
Avg Hold Time
5.9h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$358,627.73
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-785.11
Net P&L (after fees)
$-785.11
Gross Return
-7.85%
Net Return (after fees)
-7.85%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 520 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $10,000.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 18, 2024 11:00am ET $87.00 114 $9,918.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 18, 2024 2:30pm ET $87.43 114 $9,966.86 $10,048.86 +$48.86
(+0.5%) 		RESISTANCE
3.5h held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2025 9:35am ET $94.13 106 $9,977.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2025 11:40am ET $92.21 106 $9,774.26 $9,845.87 $-202.99
(-2.0%) 		RESISTANCE
2.1h held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 3, 2025 9:45am ET $80.72 121 $9,767.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 3, 2025 11:05am ET $76.59 121 $9,266.79 $9,345.54 $-500.34
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2025 9:35am ET $71.54 130 $9,300.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2025 11:05am ET $71.85 130 $9,340.50 $9,385.84 +$40.30
(+0.4%) 		RESISTANCE
1.5h held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET $204.18 45 $9,188.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 11:50am ET $200.36 45 $9,016.20 $9,213.94 $-171.90
(-1.9%) 		RESISTANCE
2.3h held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 11:00am ET $381.06 24 $9,145.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 2:10pm ET $367.63 24 $8,823.00 $8,891.50 $-322.44
(-3.5%) 		RESISTANCE
3.2h held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 10:30am ET $376.43 23 $8,657.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 10:35am ET $378.92 23 $8,715.27 $8,948.98 +$57.48
(+0.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $424.00 21 $8,904.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:35am ET $426.18 21 $8,949.78 $8,994.76 +$45.78
(+0.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
9 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 10:05am ET $723.33 12 $8,679.96 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 10:10am ET $731.57 12 $8,778.78 $9,093.58 +$98.82
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
10 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 10:55am ET $695.56 13 $9,042.28 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 11:00am ET $700.19 13 $9,102.45 $9,153.75 +$60.17
(+0.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 9:40am ET $989.61 9 $8,906.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $953.80 9 $8,584.20 $8,831.46 $-322.29
(-3.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 12:40pm ET $857.63 10 $8,576.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 12:45pm ET $867.66 10 $8,676.65 $8,931.86 +$100.40
(+1.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $1,078.93 8 $8,631.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 9:35am ET $1,073.83 8 $8,590.68 $8,891.14 $-40.72
(-0.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 10:05am ET $1,053.29 8 $8,426.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 2:40pm ET $1,134.69 8 $9,077.52 $9,542.38 +$651.24
(+7.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.6h held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 10:35am ET $1,066.35 8 $8,530.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 10:30am ET $1,007.27 8 $8,058.16 $9,069.70 $-472.68
(-5.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held
16 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:35am ET $914.00 9 $8,226.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:40am ET $927.05 9 $8,343.45 $9,187.15 +$117.45
(+1.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
17 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 9:40am ET $912.67 10 $9,126.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $977.69 10 $9,776.89 $9,837.31 +$650.16
(+7.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
18 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 9:35am ET $817.59 12 $9,811.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 11:50am ET $772.00 12 $9,264.00 $9,290.23 $-547.08
(-5.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
19 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 10:05am ET $846.34 10 $8,463.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET $830.92 10 $8,309.20 $9,136.03 $-154.20
(-1.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 9:35am ET $842.78 10 $8,427.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 9:40am ET $850.67 10 $8,506.67 $9,214.90 +$78.87
(+0.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,214.90
Net Profit/Loss: $-785.10
Total Return: -7.85%
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