Compendium › Penelope Swing › ORCL
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ORCL
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 6 trades executed

+6.48%
2 Years Return
$10,647.89
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$10,000.00
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:46:02

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
15.8 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-19.1%
EMA20 Dist
-19.9%
ATR%
6.9%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 22, 2026

74
Lifetime
Confidence: 13%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
80.7/35
Total Return
68.2/25
Win Rate
95.4/15
Profit Factor
15.0/15
Consistency
87.1/10
Raw Quality 560.1/100
× Confidence 0.13 = 73.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (13%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
63,478
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,000.00
Current Value
$10,647.89
Total P&L
$647.90
Max Drawdown
-5.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.27

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
6
Winners / Losers
4 / 2
Best Trade
+8.70%
Worst Trade
-5.25%
Avg Trade Return
+1.14%
Avg Hold Time
1.2h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$122,598.92
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$647.90
Net P&L (after fees)
$647.90
Gross Return
+6.48%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.48%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ORCL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $10,000.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 10, 2024 9:30am ET $173.25 57 $9,875.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 10, 2024 11:05am ET $176.19 57 $10,042.82 $10,167.43 +$167.43
(+1.7%) 		RESISTANCE
1.6h held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2025 9:35am ET $167.90 60 $10,074.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2025 12:50pm ET $159.09 60 $9,545.10 $9,638.53 $-528.90
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:35am ET $121.20 79 $9,574.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2025 10:10am ET $131.74 79 $10,407.46 $10,471.58 +$833.06
(+8.7%) 		RESISTANCE
36m held
4 🟢 BUY Dec 11, 2025 9:30am ET $189.08 55 $10,399.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 11:05am ET $192.23 55 $10,572.65 $10,644.83 +$173.25
(+1.7%) 		RESISTANCE
1.6h held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET $178.60 59 $10,537.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 9:35am ET $176.46 59 $10,411.43 $10,518.86 $-125.97
(-1.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 10:25am ET $152.39 69 $10,514.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 10:30am ET $154.26 69 $10,643.94 $10,647.89 +$129.03
(+1.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,647.89
Net Profit/Loss: +$647.89
Total Return: +6.48%
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