RIOT Penelope Swing's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 49 trades executed
-18.20%
2 Years Return
$10,045.95
Current Value
44%
Win Rate
$12,280.89
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
28.4 oversold
20d Trend
-31.1%
5d Trend
-24.1%
EMA20 Dist
-22.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
9
Lifetime
Confidence: 77%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.1/35
Total Return
1.4/25
Win Rate
4.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality
11.3/100
× Confidence 0.77
= 8.7
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (77%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
73,993
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$12,280.89
Current Value
$10,045.95
Total P&L
$-2,234.94
Max Drawdown
-24.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.16
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
34
Winners / Losers
15 /
19
Best Trade
+8.93%
Worst Trade
-7.57%
Avg Trade Return
-0.53%
Avg Hold Time
3.4h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$725,091.95
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,234.94
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,234.94
Gross Return
-18.20%
Net Return (after fees)
-18.20%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RIOT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $12,280.89 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2024 9:55am ET | $9.64 | 1,273 | $12,271.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 31, 2024 11:35am ET | $9.48 | 1,273 | $12,061.68 | $12,070.84 |
$-210.05 (-1.7%) |
RESISTANCE
1.7h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 12, 2024 9:30am ET | $13.67 | 883 | $12,070.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2024 11:40am ET | $14.14 | 883 | $12,484.74 | $12,485.14 |
+$414.30 (+3.4%) |
RESISTANCE
2.2h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2024 10:50am ET | $11.92 | 1,047 | $12,480.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2024 12:05pm ET | $12.07 | 1,047 | $12,632.06 | $12,636.96 |
+$151.82 (+1.2%) |
RESISTANCE
1.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2024 9:55am ET | $11.83 | 1,068 | $12,634.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2024 10:25am ET | $10.94 | 1,068 | $11,678.58 | $11,681.10 |
$-955.86 (-7.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2024 10:15am ET | $12.99 | 899 | $11,673.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2024 11:55am ET | $13.02 | 899 | $11,702.82 | $11,710.41 |
+$29.31 (+0.2%) |
RESISTANCE
1.7h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2024 9:30am ET | $11.54 | 1,014 | $11,700.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2024 11:55am ET | $11.64 | 1,014 | $11,802.96 | $11,813.02 |
+$102.62 (+0.9%) |
RESISTANCE
2.4h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2024 3:15pm ET | $12.35 | 956 | $11,806.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2024 3:40pm ET | $11.66 | 956 | $11,146.96 | $11,153.29 |
$-659.74 (-5.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
24m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2024 10:00am ET | $10.14 | 1,099 | $11,143.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 30, 2024 11:10am ET | $10.27 | 1,099 | $11,281.24 | $11,290.77 |
+$137.48 (+1.2%) |
RESISTANCE
1.2h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2025 9:40am ET | $12.99 | 869 | $11,288.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2025 11:30am ET | $12.92 | 869 | $11,227.48 | $11,229.94 |
$-60.83 (-0.5%) |
RESISTANCE
1.8h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $12.28 | 914 | $11,219.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2025 11:05am ET | $11.57 | 914 | $10,578.91 | $10,589.05 |
$-640.90 (-5.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2025 9:50am ET | $9.42 | 1,124 | $10,588.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2025 10:25am ET | $8.91 | 1,124 | $10,009.22 | $10,010.19 |
$-578.86 (-5.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
36m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $8.45 | 1,184 | $10,003.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2025 11:15am ET | $8.02 | 1,184 | $9,499.47 | $9,505.80 |
$-504.38 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2025 9:40am ET | $8.15 | 1,167 | $9,505.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2025 11:05am ET | $8.55 | 1,167 | $9,977.85 | $9,978.44 |
+$472.64 (+5.0%) |
RESISTANCE
1.4h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2025 10:10am ET | $7.77 | 1,285 | $9,978.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2025 11:25am ET | $7.93 | 1,285 | $10,190.05 | $10,190.46 |
+$212.03 (+2.1%) |
RESISTANCE
1.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $7.42 | 1,374 | $10,188.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 3, 2025 11:25am ET | $7.31 | 1,374 | $10,044.08 | $10,046.33 |
$-144.13 (-1.4%) |
RESISTANCE
1.9h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2025 9:35am ET | $7.85 | 1,280 | $10,041.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2025 11:15am ET | $7.79 | 1,280 | $9,969.28 | $9,974.01 |
$-72.32 (-0.7%) |
RESISTANCE
1.7h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2025 9:35am ET | $11.01 | 906 | $9,970.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2025 11:10am ET | $11.47 | 906 | $10,391.82 | $10,395.30 |
+$421.29 (+4.2%) |
RESISTANCE
1.6h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $11.44 | 908 | $10,389.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 1, 2025 11:30am ET | $11.26 | 908 | $10,224.08 | $10,229.41 |
$-165.89 (-1.6%) |
RESISTANCE
2h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2025 11:50am ET | $18.19 | 562 | $10,222.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2025 1:25pm ET | $18.13 | 562 | $10,186.25 | $10,192.88 |
$-36.53 (-0.4%) |
RESISTANCE
1.6h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 11:30am ET | $21.74 | 468 | $10,174.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 3:00pm ET | $21.55 | 468 | $10,085.40 | $10,103.96 |
$-88.92 (-0.9%) |
RESISTANCE
3.5h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 3, 2025 11:00am ET | $20.06 | 503 | $10,088.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 3, 2025 12:10pm ET | $20.36 | 503 | $10,241.03 | $10,256.87 |
+$152.91 (+1.5%) |
RESISTANCE
1.2h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $16.45 | 623 | $10,245.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 12:10pm ET | $16.24 | 623 | $10,114.41 | $10,126.04 |
$-130.83 (-1.3%) |
RESISTANCE
2.7h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 11:35am ET | $13.17 | 769 | $10,123.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 12:25pm ET | $13.41 | 769 | $10,308.45 | $10,310.60 |
+$184.56 (+1.8%) |
RESISTANCE
48m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 10:15am ET | $13.98 | 737 | $10,303.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 11:50am ET | $14.05 | 737 | $10,351.17 | $10,358.50 |
+$47.90 (+0.5%) |
RESISTANCE
1.6h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:55am ET | $13.96 | 742 | $10,358.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 12:05pm ET | $14.01 | 742 | $10,394.38 | $10,394.57 |
+$36.06 (+0.3%) |
RESISTANCE
2.2h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $14.28 | 727 | $10,381.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 10:00am ET | $14.49 | 727 | $10,534.23 | $10,547.17 |
+$152.60 (+1.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $17.13 | 615 | $10,534.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:40am ET | $17.08 | 615 | $10,504.20 | $10,516.42 |
$-30.75 (-0.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $25.61 | 410 | $10,500.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 12:15pm ET | $24.31 | 410 | $9,967.06 | $9,983.22 |
$-533.20 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $25.80 | 386 | $9,958.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 9:55am ET | $28.10 | 386 | $10,848.53 | $10,872.95 |
+$889.73 (+8.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 10:10am ET | $26.28 | 413 | $10,855.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 10:10am ET | $24.92 | 413 | $10,291.84 | $10,309.08 |
$-563.87 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 10:25am ET | $20.85 | 494 | $10,299.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 10:30am ET | $20.92 | 494 | $10,336.95 | $10,346.13 |
+$37.05 (+0.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 10:05am ET | $21.11 | 489 | $10,325.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET | $20.81 | 489 | $10,173.65 | $10,194.54 |
$-151.59 (-1.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 11:05am ET | $20.25 | 503 | $10,185.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 11:10am ET | $20.17 | 503 | $10,143.00 | $10,151.79 |
$-42.75 (-0.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 10:40am ET | $20.14 | 504 | $10,150.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 10:45am ET | $19.93 | 504 | $10,044.72 | $10,045.95 |
$-105.84 (-1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,045.95
Net Profit/Loss:
+$45.95
Total Return:
+0.46%