Compendium › Penelope Swing › SHIBUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SHIBUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

2024-01-01 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-25 03:40:00+00 • 41 trades executed

-25.16%
2 Years Return
$5,169.61
Current Value
29%
Win Rate
$6,907.50
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:45:23

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22 oversold
20d Trend
-35.2%
5d Trend
-32.9%
EMA20 Dist
+0.0%
ATR%
10.4%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 58%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
4.2/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.3/10
Raw Quality 8.5/100
× Confidence 0.58 = 4.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (58%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
210,533
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
732 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$6,907.50
Current Value
$5,169.61
Total P&L
$-1,737.86
Max Drawdown
-65.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.18

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
14
Winners / Losers
4 / 10
Best Trade
+9.20%
Worst Trade
-21.10%
Avg Trade Return
-1.29%
Avg Hold Time
1.2h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$178,158.62
Estimated Fees
$445.40
Gross P&L
$-1,737.86
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,183.26
Gross Return
-25.16%
Net Return (after fees)
-31.61%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SHIBUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 732 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $6,907.50 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 1, 2024 11:05am ET $0.00001656 417,117,650 $6,907.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 1, 2024 2:15pm ET $0.00001649 417,117,650 $6,878.27 $6,843.81 $-63.66
(-0.4%) 		RESISTANCE
3.2h held
2 🟢 BUY Oct 13, 2024 2:45pm ET $0.00001719 398,127,149 $6,843.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 13, 2024 4:35pm ET $0.00001727 398,127,149 $6,875.66 $6,841.36 $-2.45
(+0.5%) 		RESISTANCE
1.8h held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 10, 2024 2:45pm ET $0.00002553 267,973,256 $6,841.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2024 3:55pm ET $0.00002425 267,973,256 $6,498.35 $6,465.00 $-376.36
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 10, 2024 4:00pm ET $0.00002371 272,669,851 $6,465.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2024 4:45pm ET $0.00002523 272,669,851 $6,879.46 $6,846.10 +$381.10
(+6.4%) 		RESISTANCE
48m held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 12, 2024 5:00am ET $0.00002686 254,880,834 $6,846.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 12, 2024 5:45am ET $0.00002511 254,880,834 $6,400.06 $6,366.94 $-479.16
(-6.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
48m held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 13, 2024 2:55pm ET $0.00002496 255,085,831 $6,366.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 13, 2024 4:30pm ET $0.00002503 255,085,831 $6,384.80 $6,352.92 $-14.02
(+0.3%) 		RESISTANCE
1.6h held
7 🟢 BUY Dec 3, 2024 9:30am ET $0.00002663 238,562,486 $6,352.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 3, 2024 10:20am ET $0.00002800 238,562,486 $6,679.75 $6,647.17 +$294.25
(+5.1%) 		RESISTANCE
48m held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 4, 2024 8:25pm ET $0.00003056 217,512,040 $6,647.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 4, 2024 9:25pm ET $0.00003135 217,512,040 $6,819.00 $6,785.34 +$138.17
(+2.6%) 		RESISTANCE
1h held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2025 8:45pm ET $0.00001379 492,047,645 $6,785.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2025 8:50pm ET $0.00001308 492,047,645 $6,435.98 $6,402.93 $-382.41
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 7, 2025 2:10pm ET $0.00001359 471,150,102 $6,402.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 7, 2025 3:45pm ET $0.00001347 471,150,102 $6,346.39 $6,314.52 $-88.41
(-0.9%) 		RESISTANCE
1.6h held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2025 12:45pm ET $0.00001202 525,334,324 $6,314.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2025 2:30pm ET $0.00001173 525,334,324 $6,162.17 $6,130.98 $-183.54
(-2.4%) 		RESISTANCE
1.8h held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2025 9:15pm ET $0.00001345 455,834,937 $6,130.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2025 11:05pm ET $0.00001337 455,834,937 $6,094.51 $6,063.95 $-67.03
(-0.6%) 		RESISTANCE
1.8h held
13 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 5:10pm ET $0.00001014 598,022,620 $6,063.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 5:15pm ET $0.00000800 598,022,620 $4,784.18 $4,757.06 $-1,306.89
(-21.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET $0.00000522 911,314,298 $4,757.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 8:05pm ET $0.00000570 911,314,298 $5,194.49 $5,169.61 +$412.55
(+9.2%) 		RESISTANCE
54m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $5,169.61
Net Profit/Loss: $-4,830.39
Total Return: -48.30%
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