Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:05:34

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-23.4%
5d Trend
-1.8%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
7.4%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

17
Lifetime
Confidence: 67%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.7/35
Total Return
6.6/25
Win Rate
7.9/15
Profit Factor
0.8/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 25.6/100
× Confidence 0.67 = 17.1

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (67%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
58,024
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
534 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,840.61
Current Value
$10,521.83
Total P&L
$-318.78
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.08

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
10
Winners / Losers
5 / 5
Best Trade
+5.26%
Worst Trade
-3.37%
Avg Trade Return
-0.26%
Avg Hold Time
19.9h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$225,508.88
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-318.78
Net P&L (after fees)
$-318.78
Gross Return
-2.94%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.94%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RBLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 534 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Carl Crunch had $10,840.61 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 28, 2025 9:30am ET $59.40 182 $10,809.89
🔴 SELL Mar 28, 2025 10:00am ET $60.60 182 $11,028.29 $11,059.01 +$218.40
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
30m held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2025 10:00am ET $57.54 192 $11,047.68
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2025 9:30am ET $60.57 192 $11,628.48 $11,639.81 +$580.80
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $50.94 228 $11,614.32
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2025 9:55am ET $52.44 228 $11,956.32 $11,981.81 +$342.00
(+2.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
24m held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2025 9:55am ET $54.29 220 $11,943.80
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2025 12:15pm ET $52.62 220 $11,576.40 $11,614.41 $-367.40
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held
5 🟢 BUY May 7, 2025 9:30am ET $71.21 163 $11,607.23
🔴 SELL May 12, 2025 9:30am ET $71.50 163 $11,654.50 $11,661.68 +$47.27
(+0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 9:50am ET $59.67 195 $11,634.68
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 3:35pm ET $57.87 195 $11,284.65 $11,311.65 $-350.03
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8h held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 10:35am ET $57.15 197 $11,259.53
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 9:40am ET $55.42 197 $10,918.72 $10,970.84 $-340.81
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.1h held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 10:45am ET $55.08 199 $10,960.92
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET $56.37 199 $11,217.63 $11,227.55 +$256.71
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9h held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 1:20pm ET $57.99 193 $11,193.03
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:35am ET $56.23 193 $10,852.39 $10,886.91 $-340.64
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 9:40am ET $59.25 183 $10,842.75
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 10:35am ET $57.26 183 $10,477.67 $10,521.83 $-365.08
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,521.83
Net Profit/Loss: +$521.83
Total Return: +5.22%
Back to Carl Crunch