Compendium › Nora Newsflash › MARA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MARA
Alpaca Tradeable

Nora Newsflash's Analysis

to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 14 trades executed

-3.21%
2 Years Return
$10,419.22
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$10,765.11
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:54:50

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Mar 12, 2026

10
Lifetime
Confidence: 46%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.9/35
Total Return
5.9/25
Win Rate
6.4/15
Profit Factor
0.6/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality 21.6/100
× Confidence 0.46 = 9.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (46%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
77,034
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,765.11
Current Value
$10,419.22
Total P&L
$-345.89
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.11

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
8
Winners / Losers
4 / 4
Best Trade
+4.16%
Worst Trade
-4.16%
Avg Trade Return
-0.36%
Avg Hold Time
4.1h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$174,899.32
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-345.89
Net P&L (after fees)
$-345.89
Gross Return
-3.21%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.21%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Nora Newsflash had $10,765.11 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 9, 2024 9:30am ET $15.54 692 $10,753.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 9, 2024 9:45am ET $15.93 692 $11,024.11 $11,035.54 +$270.43
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18m held
2 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2024 9:45am ET $15.14 728 $11,021.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 11, 2024 9:30am ET $15.77 728 $11,480.56 $11,494.18 +$458.64
(+4.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2025 9:30am ET $13.35 861 $11,490.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2025 10:00am ET $12.79 861 $11,012.10 $11,016.24 $-477.94
(-4.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
30m held
4 🟢 BUY May 30, 2025 9:30am ET $14.27 772 $11,012.58 — — —
🔴 SELL May 30, 2025 10:35am ET $14.56 772 $11,240.32 $11,243.98 +$227.74
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 13, 2025 9:30am ET $15.60 720 $11,228.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 13, 2025 10:20am ET $15.06 720 $10,843.92 $10,859.50 $-384.48
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
48m held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 20, 2025 9:30am ET $14.69 739 $10,856.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 20, 2025 1:20pm ET $14.24 739 $10,519.67 $10,522.81 $-336.69
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2025 1:20pm ET $13.78 763 $10,515.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2025 2:15pm ET $14.08 763 $10,743.73 $10,751.48 +$228.67
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
54m held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 12, 2025 9:30am ET $11.97 898 $10,744.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 12, 2025 10:50am ET $11.60 898 $10,412.31 $10,419.22 $-332.26
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,419.22
Net Profit/Loss: +$419.22
Total Return: +4.19%
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