Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-28 22:19:43

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
18
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.9
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.40%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.78
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.5
Unsettled
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Jun 28, 2026

30
Lifetime
Confidence: 74%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
8.3/35
Total Return
9.2/25
Win Rate
12.1/15
Profit Factor
2.5/15
Consistency
7.5/10
Raw Quality 39.6/100
× Confidence 0.74 = 29.5

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (74%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
24,827
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-06-30 → 2026-06-26
Trading Days
263 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$10,513.36
Current Value
$11,190.66
Period P&L
$677.31
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.22

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
11
Winners / Losers
8 / 3
Best Trade
+5.52%
Worst Trade
-3.88%
Avg Trade Return
+0.62%
Avg Hold Time
2.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$235,982.90
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$677.31
Net P&L (after fees)
$677.31
Gross Return
+6.44%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.44%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 263 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 11 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rex Freefall had $10,513.36 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 1, 2025 9:30am ET $249.90 42 $10,495.80
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2025 9:30am ET $250.02 42 $10,500.82 $10,518.38 +$5.02
(+0.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2025 10:45am ET $239.15 43 $10,283.45
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2025 9:30am ET $239.85 43 $10,313.55 $10,548.48 +$30.10
(+0.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held
3 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 3:30pm ET $278.95 37 $10,321.15
🔴 SELL Oct 15, 2025 10:00am ET $284.96 37 $10,543.52 $10,770.85 +$222.37
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2025 9:30am ET $289.70 37 $10,718.90
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET $295.62 37 $10,937.94 $10,989.89 +$219.04
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 12:40pm ET $290.28 37 $10,740.36
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $298.10 37 $11,029.80 $11,279.34 +$289.45
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 10:15am ET $283.70 39 $11,064.20
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 1:30pm ET $274.79 39 $10,716.81 $10,931.94 $-347.39
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 1:30pm ET $259.04 42 $10,879.68
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 12:30pm ET $264.60 42 $11,113.20 $11,165.46 +$233.52
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23h held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 2:05pm ET $232.51 48 $11,160.48
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 3:15pm ET $225.03 48 $10,801.44 $10,806.42 $-359.04
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 9:40am ET $223.48 48 $10,726.80
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 10:25am ET $228.29 48 $10,957.92 $11,037.54 +$231.12
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
45m held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:35am ET $310.09 35 $10,853.12
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $298.06 35 $10,432.10 $10,616.52 $-421.02
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 18, 2026 9:35am ET $247.83 42 $10,408.86
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $261.50 42 $10,983.00 $11,190.66 +$574.14
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,190.66
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,190.66
Total Return: +11.91%
Back to Rex Freefall