Compendium › Sage Serenity › SMCI
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SMCI
Alpaca Tradeable

Sage Serenity's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 3 trades in period

-5.40%
Last 3 Months Return
$7,859.75
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$8,308.83
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-25 03:51:57

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

1
Lifetime
Confidence: 70%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.0/10
Raw Quality 2.0/100
× Confidence 0.70 = 1.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (70%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,308.83
Current Value
$7,859.75
Period P&L
$-449.08
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.63

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+2.22%
Worst Trade
-3.89%
Avg Trade Return
-1.79%
Avg Hold Time
15.1h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$47,447.08
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-449.08
Net P&L (after fees)
$-449.08
Gross Return
-5.40%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.40%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Sage Serenity had $8,308.83 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 1:25pm ET $37.58 221 $8,305.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 9:55am ET $36.12 221 $7,982.52 $7,986.17 $-322.66
(-3.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.5h held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 10:45am ET $40.95 195 $7,985.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 9:35am ET $39.43 195 $7,688.85 $7,689.77 $-296.40
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 24, 2026 12:35pm ET $40.95 187 $7,657.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 2:40pm ET $41.86 187 $7,827.63 $7,859.75 +$169.98
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.1h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,859.75
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,140.25
Total Return: -21.40%
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