Compendium › Sage Serenity › SMCI
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SMCI
Alpaca Tradeable

Sage Serenity's Analysis

to 2026-05-06 14:00:00+00 • 13 trades executed

-10.40%
2 Years Return
$8,308.83
Current Value
44%
Win Rate
$9,273.68
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:03:33

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Mar 29, 2026

1
Lifetime
Confidence: 45%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.5/10
Raw Quality 2.5/100
× Confidence 0.45 = 1.1

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (45%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
83,059
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$9,273.68
Current Value
$8,308.83
Total P&L
$-964.85
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.29

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
9
Winners / Losers
4 / 5
Best Trade
+3.34%
Worst Trade
-9.29%
Avg Trade Return
-1.14%
Avg Hold Time
1.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$163,855.22
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-964.85
Net P&L (after fees)
$-964.85
Gross Return
-10.40%
Net Return (after fees)
-10.40%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Sage Serenity had $9,273.68 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 13, 2024 9:30am ET $80.11 115 $9,212.87 — — —
🔴 SELL May 13, 2024 9:40am ET $77.39 115 $8,899.97 $8,960.78 $-312.90
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
12m held
2 🟢 BUY May 23, 2024 9:30am ET $94.78 94 $8,909.32 — — —
🔴 SELL May 23, 2024 9:35am ET $96.96 94 $9,114.24 $9,165.70 +$204.92
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6m held
3 🟢 BUY May 31, 2024 12:40pm ET $77.14 118 $9,101.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2024 9:30am ET $79.71 118 $9,405.84 $9,469.61 +$303.91
(+3.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2024 2:45pm ET $82.95 114 $9,456.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2024 11:10am ET $84.75 114 $9,660.93 $9,673.83 +$204.22
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
20.4h held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 13, 2024 9:55am ET $21.74 445 $9,672.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 13, 2024 10:20am ET $21.07 445 $9,376.15 $9,377.86 $-295.97
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
24m held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2024 10:25am ET $19.19 488 $9,362.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 14, 2024 11:15am ET $18.48 488 $9,018.24 $9,033.82 $-344.04
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
48m held
7 🟢 BUY Dec 12, 2024 9:30am ET $38.56 234 $9,022.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 12, 2024 9:45am ET $39.65 234 $9,276.93 $9,287.92 +$254.10
(+2.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18m held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 13, 2024 11:30am ET $36.45 254 $9,257.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 16, 2024 9:30am ET $33.06 254 $8,397.24 $8,428.13 $-859.79
(-9.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 24, 2025 9:30am ET $30.71 274 $8,414.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET $30.28 274 $8,295.65 $8,308.83 $-119.30
(-1.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,308.83
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,691.17
Total Return: -16.91%
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