Compendium › Sage Serenity › COIN
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
COIN
Alpaca Tradeable

Sage Serenity's Analysis

to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 12 trades executed

-6.21%
2 Years Return
$9,686.21
Current Value
0%
Win Rate
$10,327.80
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:14:16

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
13.1 oversold
20d Trend
-42.6%
5d Trend
-24.4%
EMA20 Dist
-25.8%
ATR%
6.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Mar 31, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 45%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
3.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.3/10
Raw Quality 7.1/100
× Confidence 0.45 = 3.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (45%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
73,431
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
535 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,327.80
Current Value
$9,686.21
Total P&L
$-641.58
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-14.92

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
2
Winners / Losers
0 / 2
Best Trade
-2.99%
Worst Trade
-3.42%
Avg Trade Return
-3.20%
Avg Hold Time
2.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$39,416.48
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-641.58
Net P&L (after fees)
$-641.58
Gross Return
-6.21%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.21%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 COIN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 535 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Sage Serenity had $10,327.80 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2024 10:10am ET $288.65 35 $10,102.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 14, 2024 10:45am ET $278.79 35 $9,757.65 $9,982.69 $-345.10
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
36m held
2 🟢 BUY Dec 26, 2025 10:55am ET $236.34 42 $9,926.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 31, 2025 10:55am ET $229.28 42 $9,629.80 $9,686.21 $-296.48
(-3.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,686.21
Net Profit/Loss: $-313.79
Total Return: -3.14%
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