Compendium › Reversion › ADBE
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ADBE
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-25 to present • 3 trades in period

-7.75%
Last Month Return
$6,562.41
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$7,113.42
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:14:33

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
23.9 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-9.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
3.4%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

10
Lifetime
Confidence: 91%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality 10.7/100
× Confidence 0.91 = 9.8

30-Day Momentum

0
-5.8%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (91%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$7,113.42
Current Value
$6,562.41
Period P&L
$-551.01
Max Drawdown
-11.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.32

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+5.22%
Worst Trade
-8.56%
Avg Trade Return
-1.80%
Avg Hold Time
8.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$41,336.78
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-551.01
Net P&L (after fees)
$-551.01
Gross Return
-7.75%
Net Return (after fees)
-7.75%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ADBE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $7,113.42 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 2:45pm ET $265.32 26 $6,898.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $279.18 26 $7,258.68 $7,324.93 +$360.36
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
8.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 12:25pm ET $291.67 25 $7,291.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $266.70 25 $6,667.50 $6,700.68 $-624.25
(-8.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $256.90 26 $6,679.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $251.58 26 $6,541.13 $6,562.41 $-138.27
(-2.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,562.41
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,437.59
Total Return: -34.38%
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