Compendium › Reversion › AMGN
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AMGN
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-25 to present • 4 trades in period

-271.76%
Last Month Return
$11,002.65
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$591.61
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-09-25 04:06:21

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
74.9 overbought
20d Trend
+13.8%
5d Trend
+8.9%
EMA20 Dist
+7.0%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
95%
Bounce Ratio
3.1×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

23
Lifetime
Confidence: 85%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
4.9/35
Total Return
8.7/25
Win Rate
6.7/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 26.6/100
× Confidence 0.85 = 22.8

30-Day Momentum

1
-9.0%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-22 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (85%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$591.61
Current Value
$11,002.65
Period P&L
$-1,607.74
Max Drawdown
-7.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.69

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+1.63%
Worst Trade
-7.68%
Avg Trade Return
-2.34%
Avg Hold Time
10.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$91,434.48
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,607.74
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,607.74
Gross Return
-271.76%
Net Return (after fees)
-271.76%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AMGN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $591.61 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 9:40am ET $435.62 27 $11,761.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $426.77 27 $11,522.79 $11,857.36 $-238.95
(-2.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
11d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 9:40am ET $435.62 27 $11,761.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:35am ET $442.70 27 $11,953.03 $12,048.65 +$191.29
(+1.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
14.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 12:55pm ET $436.83 27 $11,794.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $403.29 27 $10,888.83 $11,143.07 $-905.58
(-7.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 9:35am ET $390.93 28 $10,946.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $385.92 28 $10,805.76 $11,002.65 $-140.42
(-1.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,002.65
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,002.65
Total Return: +10.03%
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