Compendium › Reversion › AMGN
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AMGN
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-04-09 to present • 3 trades in period

-4.72%
Last Month Return
$9,298.80
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$9,759.24
Period Start
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PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-05-09 07:47:00

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
38
Fear
VIX
17.1
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.41%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.75
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 2.6
Active
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
74.9 overbought
20d Trend
+13.8%
5d Trend
+8.9%
EMA20 Dist
+7.0%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
95%
Bounce Ratio
3.1×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored May 9, 2026

8
Lifetime
Confidence: 78%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.4/10
Raw Quality 10.5/100
× Confidence 0.78 = 8.2

30-Day Momentum

0
-4.8%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-8 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (78%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-09 → 2026-05-08
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$9,759.24
Current Value
$9,298.80
Period P&L
$-460.44
Max Drawdown
-7.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-1.04

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+0.32%
Worst Trade
-3.50%
Avg Trade Return
-1.62%
Avg Hold Time
10.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$57,114.76
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-460.44
Net P&L (after fees)
$-460.44
Gross Return
-4.72%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.72%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AMGN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,759.24 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 2:25pm ET $350.73 27 $9,469.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 2:25pm ET $351.85 27 $9,499.95 $9,796.50 +$30.24
(+0.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 9:50am ET $348.70 28 $9,763.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET $342.86 28 $9,600.08 $9,632.98 $-163.52
(-1.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 12:40pm ET $341.35 28 $9,557.80 — — —
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 12:40pm ET $329.42 28 $9,223.62 $9,298.80 $-334.18
(-3.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,298.80
Net Profit/Loss: $-701.20
Total Return: -7.01%
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