Compendium › Reversion › ARKK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ARKK
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-25 to present • 3 trades in period

+3.12%
Last Month Return
$10,157.98
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$9,850.76
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 20:20:06

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.18%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Sep 25, 2026

15
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.3/35
Total Return
3.4/25
Win Rate
7.0/15
Profit Factor
0.1/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 15.8/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 15.4

30-Day Momentum

22
+4.2%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 36.2 Conf: 0.61×
Steady (+7 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$9,850.76
Current Value
$10,157.98
Period P&L
$307.22
Max Drawdown
-22.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.41

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
2 / 1
Best Trade
+5.22%
Worst Trade
-3.11%
Avg Trade Return
+1.43%
Avg Hold Time
7.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$58,829.62
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$307.22
Net P&L (after fees)
$307.22
Gross Return
+3.12%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.12%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,850.76 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:40am ET $83.84 116 $9,725.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:40am ET $85.66 116 $9,936.56 $9,963.86 +$211.12
(+2.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:40am ET $85.91 115 $9,879.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:40am ET $83.24 115 $9,572.60 $9,656.81 $-307.05
(-3.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 2:35pm ET $83.54 115 $9,607.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $87.90 115 $10,108.27 $10,157.98 +$501.17
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,157.98
Net Profit/Loss: +$157.98
Total Return: +1.58%
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