Compendium › Reversion › AVGO
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AVGO
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-24 to present • 4 trades in period

-4.46%
Last Month Return
$9,048.14
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$9,470.47
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:54:49

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
32.7 neutral
20d Trend
-13.0%
5d Trend
-6.9%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
4.0%
Range Pos
10%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
7/3

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

13
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
8.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.7/10
Raw Quality 12.7/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 12.6

30-Day Momentum

1
-9.3%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-12 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$9,470.47
Current Value
$9,048.14
Period P&L
$-422.33
Max Drawdown
-10.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.46

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+5.04%
Worst Trade
-7.17%
Avg Trade Return
-2.35%
Avg Hold Time
7.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$71,755.21
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-422.33
Net P&L (after fees)
$-422.33
Gross Return
-4.46%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.46%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AVGO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,470.47 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $384.22 25 $9,605.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 1:25pm ET $357.30 25 $8,932.50 $9,306.83 $-673.05
(-7.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7.2d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 11:50am ET $370.05 25 $9,251.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:55am ET $343.54 25 $8,588.38 $8,643.96 $-662.87
(-7.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 1:35pm ET $353.82 24 $8,491.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 11:15am ET $371.64 24 $8,919.36 $9,071.64 +$427.68
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 11:25am ET $359.80 25 $8,995.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $358.86 25 $8,971.50 $9,048.14 $-23.50
(-0.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
11.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,048.14
Net Profit/Loss: $-951.86
Total Return: -9.52%
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