Compendium › Reversion › DIS
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
DIS
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-25 to present • 3 trades in period

-56.88%
Last Month Return
$10,071.05
Current Value
100%
Win Rate
$319.43
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:14:43

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.5 neutral
20d Trend
-7.1%
5d Trend
-7.2%
EMA20 Dist
-4.1%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

16
Lifetime
Confidence: 82%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.5/35
Total Return
1.9/25
Win Rate
10.6/15
Profit Factor
0.1/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality 19.1/100
× Confidence 0.82 = 15.7

30-Day Momentum

32
+4.2%
30d Return
100%
Win Rate
3
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 51.9 Conf: 0.61×
Accelerating (+16 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (82%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$319.43
Current Value
$10,071.05
Period P&L
$-181.68
Max Drawdown
-4.5%
Sharpe Ratio
1.08

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
3 / 0
Best Trade
+3.26%
Worst Trade
+0.31%
Avg Trade Return
+1.41%
Avg Hold Time
11d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$58,325.32
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-181.68
Net P&L (after fees)
$-181.68
Gross Return
-56.88%
Net Return (after fees)
-56.88%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DIS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $319.43 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 1:35pm ET $107.08 90 $9,637.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 1:35pm ET $107.41 90 $9,666.90 $9,690.23 +$29.70
(+0.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 1:35pm ET $107.08 90 $9,637.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET $107.80 90 $9,702.00 $9,755.03 +$64.80
(+0.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
12.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 3:55pm ET $105.25 92 $9,683.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 3:55pm ET $108.68 92 $9,999.02 $10,071.05 +$316.02
(+3.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,071.05
Net Profit/Loss: +$71.05
Total Return: +0.71%
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