Compendium › Reversion › DKNG
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
DKNG
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-24 to present • 4 trades in period

-10.83%
Last Month Return
$7,129.86
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$7,996.13
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:48:30

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.5 oversold
20d Trend
-25.9%
5d Trend
-7.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.7%
ATR%
5.3%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

11
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 11.5/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 11.2

30-Day Momentum

1
-9.1%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$7,996.13
Current Value
$7,129.86
Period P&L
$-866.28
Max Drawdown
-28.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.49

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+5.22%
Worst Trade
-7.17%
Avg Trade Return
-2.26%
Avg Hold Time
6.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$59,823.33
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-866.28
Net P&L (after fees)
$-866.28
Gross Return
-10.83%
Net Return (after fees)
-10.83%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DKNG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $7,996.13 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 3:20pm ET $25.33 309 $7,825.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 3:20pm ET $24.24 309 $7,488.62 $7,509.43 $-336.81
(-4.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $24.26 309 $7,496.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $23.58 309 $7,286.22 $7,299.31 $-210.12
(-2.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:45am ET $23.96 304 $7,283.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 2:25pm ET $25.21 304 $7,663.84 $7,679.31 +$380.00
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 1:20pm ET $23.23 330 $7,664.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 9:30am ET $21.56 330 $7,114.80 $7,129.86 $-549.45
(-7.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,129.86
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,870.14
Total Return: -28.70%
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