Compendium › Reversion › IBM
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
IBM
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-25 to present • 4 trades in period

+0.00%
Last Month Return
$7,534.84
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$-36.05
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:14:43

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

10
Lifetime
Confidence: 86%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.2/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 11.2/100
× Confidence 0.86 = 9.6

30-Day Momentum

5
+0.3%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 7.9 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (86%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$-36.05
Current Value
$7,534.84
Period P&L
$177.60
Max Drawdown
-5.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.04

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+7.71%
Worst Trade
-7.23%
Avg Trade Return
+0.20%
Avg Hold Time
8.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$60,489.28
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$177.60
Net P&L (after fees)
$177.60
Gross Return
+0.00%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.00%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $-36.05 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 9:30am ET $233.41 32 $7,469.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $232.90 32 $7,452.80 $7,492.60 $-16.32
(-0.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 9:30am ET $233.41 32 $7,469.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET $234.68 32 $7,509.76 $7,533.24 +$40.64
(+0.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
13.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $231.72 32 $7,415.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $249.58 32 $7,986.56 $8,104.76 +$571.52
(+7.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $246.20 32 $7,878.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 11:25am ET $228.39 32 $7,308.48 $7,534.84 $-569.92
(-7.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,534.84
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,465.16
Total Return: -24.65%
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