Compendium › Reversion › MCD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MCD
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-25 to present • 3 trades in period

-7.04%
Last Month Return
$7,804.99
Current Value
0%
Win Rate
$8,396.51
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:42:28

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
71.6 overbought
20d Trend
+5.3%
5d Trend
+2.7%
EMA20 Dist
+2.8%
ATR%
1.5%
Range Pos
87%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 77%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
1.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 5.9/100
× Confidence 0.77 = 4.6

30-Day Momentum

0
-6.4%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-5 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (77%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$8,396.51
Current Value
$7,804.99
Period P&L
$-591.52
Max Drawdown
-4.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-1.55

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
0 / 3
Best Trade
-0.60%
Worst Trade
-4.04%
Avg Trade Return
-2.19%
Avg Hold Time
12.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$47,927.10
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-591.52
Net P&L (after fees)
$-591.52
Gross Return
-7.04%
Net Return (after fees)
-7.04%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MCD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $8,396.51 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET $270.50 30 $8,115.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $268.88 30 $8,066.40 $8,290.61 $-48.60
(-0.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
14d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $265.36 31 $8,226.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $254.65 31 $7,894.15 $7,958.60 $-332.01
(-4.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET $254.50 31 $7,889.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $249.54 31 $7,735.89 $7,804.99 $-153.61
(-1.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,804.99
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,195.01
Total Return: -21.95%
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