Compendium › Reversion › MRK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MRK
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-24 to present • 4 trades in period

+0.00%
Last Month Return
$14,707.08
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$-88.85
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:21:24

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
79.9 overbought
20d Trend
+11.9%
5d Trend
+9.6%
EMA20 Dist
+7.7%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
96%
Bounce Ratio
5.6×
Green/Red 10d
7/3

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

60
Lifetime
Confidence: 84%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
33.0/35
Total Return
14.0/25
Win Rate
9.7/15
Profit Factor
6.9/15
Consistency
8.0/10
Raw Quality 71.5/100
× Confidence 0.84 = 60.4

30-Day Momentum

1
-1.7%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-59 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (84%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$-88.85
Current Value
$14,707.08
Period P&L
$-36.25
Max Drawdown
-2.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.11

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+5.10%
Worst Trade
-3.23%
Avg Trade Return
-0.37%
Avg Hold Time
10.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$116,272.12
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-36.25
Net P&L (after fees)
$-36.25
Gross Return
+0.00%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.00%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $-88.85 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET $150.93 99 $14,942.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $146.10 99 $14,463.90 $14,484.94 $-478.17
(-3.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
11d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET $150.93 99 $14,942.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET $150.69 99 $14,918.31 $14,461.18 $-23.76
(-0.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
14.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 12:50pm ET $150.19 96 $14,418.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 12:50pm ET $145.34 96 $13,952.16 $13,995.10 $-466.08
(-3.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $143.93 97 $13,961.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 10:35am ET $151.27 97 $14,673.67 $14,707.08 +$711.98
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,707.08
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,707.08
Total Return: +47.07%
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