Compendium › Reversion › MRK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MRK
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-04-09 to present • 3 trades in period

-5.24%
Last Month Return
$11,723.63
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$12,372.08
Period Start
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PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-05-09 06:38:32

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
38
Fear
VIX
17.1
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.41%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.75
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 2.6
Active
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
79.9 overbought
20d Trend
+11.9%
5d Trend
+9.6%
EMA20 Dist
+7.7%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
96%
Bounce Ratio
5.6×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored May 8, 2026

36
Lifetime
Confidence: 77%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
12.1/35
Total Return
10.5/25
Win Rate
12.4/15
Profit Factor
3.7/15
Consistency
8.1/10
Raw Quality 46.8/100
× Confidence 0.77 = 36.2

30-Day Momentum

3
-0.4%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.2 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-33 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (77%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-09 → 2026-05-08
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$12,372.08
Current Value
$11,723.63
Period P&L
$-648.45
Max Drawdown
-2.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.33

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+5.02%
Worst Trade
-7.13%
Avg Trade Return
-1.66%
Avg Hold Time
6.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$70,135.69
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-648.45
Net P&L (after fees)
$-648.45
Gross Return
-5.24%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.24%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $12,372.08 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 9:30am ET $121.51 101 $12,273.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $118.04 101 $11,922.04 $12,021.11 $-350.97
(-2.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET $116.53 103 $12,002.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $108.22 103 $11,146.66 $11,165.69 $-855.42
(-7.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 9:35am ET $108.99 102 $11,116.98 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 10:20am ET $114.46 102 $11,674.92 $11,723.63 +$557.94
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,723.63
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,723.63
Total Return: +17.24%
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