Compendium › Reversion › NFLX
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
NFLX
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-24 to present • 4 trades in period

-6.40%
Last Month Return
$7,100.95
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$7,586.16
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:16:25

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.2 neutral
20d Trend
-10.9%
5d Trend
-5.8%
EMA20 Dist
-5.4%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 88%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
2.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.6/10
Raw Quality 5.7/100
× Confidence 0.88 = 5.0

30-Day Momentum

3
-4.1%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.2 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (88%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$7,586.16
Current Value
$7,100.95
Period P&L
$-485.22
Max Drawdown
-10.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.14

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+5.10%
Worst Trade
-8.49%
Avg Trade Return
-0.86%
Avg Hold Time
7.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$60,097.93
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-485.22
Net P&L (after fees)
$-485.22
Gross Return
-6.40%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.40%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NFLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $7,586.16 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 9:40am ET $77.79 95 $7,389.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 11:30am ET $81.71 95 $7,762.92 $7,778.54 +$373.35
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 3:50pm ET $81.65 95 $7,756.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $77.47 95 $7,359.65 $7,381.44 $-397.10
(-5.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
12.7d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET $76.45 96 $7,339.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 11:10am ET $80.35 96 $7,713.60 $7,755.84 +$374.40
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 3:40pm ET $77.93 99 $7,715.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $71.32 99 $7,060.67 $7,100.95 $-654.89
(-8.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,100.95
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,899.05
Total Return: -28.99%
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