Compendium › Reversion › NVDA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
NVDA
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-24 to present • 4 trades in period

+8.23%
Last Month Return
$10,434.15
Current Value
75%
Win Rate
$9,641.10
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:20:38

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

19
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.8/35
Total Return
6.0/25
Win Rate
7.7/15
Profit Factor
0.2/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality 19.3/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 19.0

30-Day Momentum

22
+4.6%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 33.5 Conf: 0.66×
Steady (+3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$9,641.10
Current Value
$10,434.15
Period P&L
$793.05
Max Drawdown
-18.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.24

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
3 / 1
Best Trade
+5.16%
Worst Trade
-8.05%
Avg Trade Return
+1.30%
Avg Hold Time
6.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$81,040.46
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$793.05
Net P&L (after fees)
$793.05
Gross Return
+8.23%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.23%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,641.10 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $220.55 45 $9,924.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET $227.37 45 $10,231.43 $10,278.98 +$306.45
(+3.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 2:25pm ET $218.97 46 $10,072.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 1:45pm ET $229.93 46 $10,576.78 $10,783.14 +$504.16
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 3:30pm ET $229.69 46 $10,565.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $211.20 46 $9,715.20 $9,932.75 $-850.39
(-8.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
9.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 1:05pm ET $211.44 46 $9,726.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 3:55pm ET $222.34 46 $10,227.64 $10,434.15 +$501.40
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,434.15
Net Profit/Loss: +$434.15
Total Return: +4.34%
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