Compendium › Reversion › PANW
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
PANW
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-24 to present • 4 trades in period

+4.94%
Last Month Return
$16,157.79
Current Value
75%
Win Rate
$15,396.73
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:38:46

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
18.4 oversold
20d Trend
-19.1%
5d Trend
-12.6%
EMA20 Dist
-11.6%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

52
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
21.4/35
Total Return
14.9/25
Win Rate
9.0/15
Profit Factor
3.4/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 55.1/100
× Confidence 0.95 = 52.2

30-Day Momentum

24
+6.0%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 36.0 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-28 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$15,396.73
Current Value
$16,157.79
Period P&L
$761.06
Max Drawdown
-10.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.27

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
3 / 1
Best Trade
+5.48%
Worst Trade
-9.23%
Avg Trade Return
+1.69%
Avg Hold Time
7.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$121,965.51
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$761.06
Net P&L (after fees)
$761.06
Gross Return
+4.94%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.94%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PANW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $15,396.73 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 11:20am ET $351.76 43 $15,125.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:40am ET $369.96 43 $15,908.28 $16,021.52 +$782.60
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 9:40am ET $368.73 43 $15,855.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET $334.69 43 $14,391.67 $14,557.59 $-1,463.93
(-9.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 3:50pm ET $328.24 44 $14,442.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $346.24 44 $15,234.65 $15,349.68 +$792.09
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
10.7d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $368.28 41 $15,099.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 11:05am ET $387.99 41 $15,907.59 $16,157.79 +$808.11
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,157.79
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,157.79
Total Return: +61.58%
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