AVGO Reversion's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 49 trades in period
-17.06%
Last Year Return
$9,048.14
Current Value
55%
Win Rate
$10,909.08
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
32.7 neutral
20d Trend
-13.0%
5d Trend
-6.9%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
4.0%
Range Pos
10%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
13
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
8.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.7/10
Raw Quality
12.7/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 12.6
30-Day Momentum
1
-9.3%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4
Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-12 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,380
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$10,909.08
Current Value
$9,048.14
Period P&L
$-1,860.94
Max Drawdown
-10.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.06
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
49
Winners / Losers
27 /
22
Best Trade
+6.70%
Worst Trade
-14.16%
Avg Trade Return
-0.29%
Avg Hold Time
3.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$562,066.97
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,860.94
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,860.94
Gross Return
-17.06%
Net Return (after fees)
-17.06%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 AVGO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 49 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,909.08 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $331.58 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 11:10am ET | $334.99 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,018.51 |
+$109.43 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 11:00am ET | $339.82 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 12:45pm ET | $332.10 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,771.31 |
$-247.20 (-2.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $347.48 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $351.23 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,883.66 |
+$112.35 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 9:35am ET | $344.53 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 9:40am ET | $348.66 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,011.69 |
+$128.03 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 9:35am ET | $344.21 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 11:05am ET | $337.14 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,792.23 |
$-219.46 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $329.97 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 9:35am ET | $333.84 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,916.12 |
+$123.89 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 11:35am ET | $363.45 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 12:10pm ET | $355.24 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,669.75 |
$-246.37 (-2.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 10:10am ET | $338.52 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 11:55am ET | $343.53 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,825.06 |
+$155.31 (+1.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 9:35am ET | $390.10 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 9:35am ET | $391.37 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,859.38 |
+$34.32 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 9:35am ET | $372.56 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 10:20am ET | $377.02 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,988.86 |
+$129.48 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $400.28 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 1:00pm ET | $404.68 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,107.63 |
+$118.77 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $374.57 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 10:05am ET | $366.80 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,882.44 |
$-225.19 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 10:15am ET | $346.42 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 1:25pm ET | $339.39 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,664.51 |
$-217.93 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $339.20 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 10:15am ET | $343.09 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,785.19 |
+$120.68 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $338.36 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 9:45am ET | $341.77 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,891.01 |
+$105.82 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 9:40am ET | $335.68 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $337.55 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,950.88 |
+$59.87 (+0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $345.60 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 10:30am ET | $338.32 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,725.20 |
$-225.68 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $340.13 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 1:25pm ET | $333.32 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,514.24 |
$-210.96 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $315.67 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 10:45am ET | $321.22 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,697.39 |
+$183.15 (+1.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:50am ET | $321.43 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 11:25am ET | $324.68 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,804.51 |
+$107.12 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:55am ET | $323.40 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:35am ET | $316.89 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,589.80 |
$-214.71 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 12:35pm ET | $296.33 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 1:25pm ET | $299.86 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,713.19 |
+$123.39 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:30pm ET | $307.17 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:50pm ET | $310.63 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,830.81 |
+$117.62 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 2:45pm ET | $338.12 | 32 | $10,819.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 3:45pm ET | $325.75 | 32 | $10,424.00 | $10,435.11 |
$-395.70 (-3.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 12:35pm ET | $317.85 | 32 | $10,171.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $300.71 | 32 | $9,622.72 | $9,886.63 |
$-548.48 (-5.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
11.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:05pm ET | $312.77 | 31 | $9,695.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 12:25pm ET | $329.50 | 31 | $10,214.50 | $10,405.26 |
+$518.63 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 3:00pm ET | $349.37 | 29 | $10,131.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $368.85 | 29 | $10,696.65 | $10,970.18 |
+$564.92 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $370.24 | 29 | $10,736.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $390.09 | 29 | $11,312.61 | $11,545.83 |
+$575.65 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:45am ET | $396.64 | 29 | $11,502.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 11:40am ET | $417.35 | 29 | $12,103.01 | $12,146.27 |
+$600.44 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:05pm ET | $424.93 | 28 | $11,898.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 11:55am ET | $394.82 | 28 | $11,054.96 | $11,303.05 |
$-843.22 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 11:55am ET | $399.10 | 28 | $11,174.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:40am ET | $421.58 | 28 | $11,804.24 | $11,932.49 |
+$629.44 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 10:30am ET | $415.88 | 28 | $11,644.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 10:30am ET | $434.76 | 28 | $12,173.28 | $12,461.13 |
+$528.64 (+4.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $425.13 | 29 | $12,328.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $418.94 | 29 | $12,149.26 | $12,281.62 |
$-179.51 (-1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10.7d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $417.01 | 29 | $12,093.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 9:40am ET | $441.23 | 29 | $12,795.67 | $12,984.15 |
+$702.53 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 3:35pm ET | $457.67 | 28 | $12,814.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $488.34 | 28 | $13,673.52 | $13,842.91 |
+$858.76 (+6.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.9h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $478.07 | 28 | $13,385.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $410.39 | 28 | $11,490.78 | $11,947.73 |
$-1,895.18 (-14.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $404.00 | 29 | $11,715.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 12:10pm ET | $375.69 | 29 | $10,895.01 | $11,126.79 |
$-820.94 (-7.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $379.76 | 29 | $11,012.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 11:15am ET | $399.33 | 29 | $11,580.57 | $11,694.46 |
+$567.67 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 2:25pm ET | $406.83 | 28 | $11,391.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $378.00 | 28 | $10,584.00 | $10,887.22 |
$-807.24 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 1:20pm ET | $381.77 | 28 | $10,689.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $374.00 | 28 | $10,472.00 | $10,669.80 |
$-217.42 (-2.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
11.8d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $366.46 | 29 | $10,627.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 10:00am ET | $385.14 | 29 | $11,169.06 | $11,211.52 |
+$541.72 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 3:15pm ET | $402.80 | 27 | $10,875.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 3:40pm ET | $372.90 | 27 | $10,068.37 | $10,404.15 |
$-807.37 (-7.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 3:15pm ET | $402.80 | 27 | $10,875.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $381.86 | 27 | $10,310.09 | $9,838.50 |
$-565.65 (-5.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20.8d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $385.37 | 25 | $9,634.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $408.15 | 25 | $10,203.87 | $10,408.13 |
+$569.63 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $414.42 | 25 | $10,360.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $397.29 | 25 | $9,932.25 | $9,979.88 |
$-428.25 (-4.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
11d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $384.22 | 25 | $9,605.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 1:25pm ET | $357.30 | 25 | $8,932.50 | $9,306.83 |
$-673.05 (-7.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.2d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 11:50am ET | $370.05 | 25 | $9,251.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 9:55am ET | $343.54 | 25 | $8,588.38 | $8,643.96 |
$-662.87 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 1:35pm ET | $353.82 | 24 | $8,491.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 11:15am ET | $371.64 | 24 | $8,919.36 | $9,071.64 |
+$427.68 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 11:25am ET | $359.80 | 25 | $8,995.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $358.86 | 25 | $8,971.50 | $9,048.14 |
$-23.50 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
11.9d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,048.14
Net Profit/Loss:
$-951.86
Total Return:
-9.52%