DKNG Reversion's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 50 trades in period
-25.77%
Last Year Return
$7,129.86
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$9,604.71
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.5 oversold
20d Trend
-25.9%
5d Trend
-7.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.7%
ATR%
5.3%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
11
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality
11.5/100
× Confidence 0.97
= 11.2
30-Day Momentum
1
-9.1%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4
Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
24,689
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$9,604.71
Current Value
$7,129.86
Period P&L
$-2,474.86
Max Drawdown
-28.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.11
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
50
Winners / Losers
25 /
25
Best Trade
+5.94%
Worst Trade
-8.69%
Avg Trade Return
-0.47%
Avg Hold Time
3.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$460,420.32
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,474.86
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,474.86
Gross Return
-25.77%
Net Return (after fees)
-25.77%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 DKNG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 50 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,604.71 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 29, 2025 9:35am ET | $41.64 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 29, 2025 9:50am ET | $42.16 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,724.29 |
+$119.58 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $40.86 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 30, 2025 9:55am ET | $39.88 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,490.73 |
$-233.56 (-2.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 10:40am ET | $36.64 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 2:05pm ET | $35.90 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,297.75 |
$-192.98 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $33.81 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 7, 2025 11:30am ET | $33.05 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,090.07 |
$-207.68 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 9:45am ET | $33.90 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 11:00am ET | $33.22 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,906.65 |
$-183.42 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 24, 2025 10:20am ET | $33.85 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 12:05pm ET | $33.09 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,706.77 |
$-199.88 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $32.27 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 27, 2025 9:35am ET | $32.66 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,812.11 |
+$105.34 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 28, 2025 9:30am ET | $31.98 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2025 12:00pm ET | $31.33 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,633.36 |
$-178.75 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $29.53 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 11:20am ET | $28.93 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,459.62 |
$-173.74 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $26.95 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 9:35am ET | $27.23 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,547.29 |
+$87.67 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 9:45am ET | $30.07 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2025 9:55am ET | $30.42 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,646.69 |
+$99.40 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 9:30am ET | $30.78 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 10:30am ET | $30.06 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,445.09 |
$-201.60 (-2.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 9:45am ET | $34.75 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 10:45am ET | $35.10 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,530.14 |
+$85.05 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $34.13 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 3:30pm ET | $34.48 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,617.29 |
+$87.15 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $34.67 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 12:55pm ET | $35.02 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,704.09 |
+$86.80 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $34.53 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 10:00am ET | $34.88 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,793.55 |
+$89.46 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $34.01 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $33.30 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,610.34 |
$-183.21 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.82 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 11:35am ET | $32.75 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,862.92 |
+$252.58 (+2.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 9:45am ET | $28.72 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 11:50am ET | $28.09 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,667.34 |
$-195.58 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $26.90 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 12:25pm ET | $26.33 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,482.19 |
$-185.15 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.60 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:30am ET | $26.01 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,296.16 |
$-186.03 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 10:00am ET | $26.35 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 10:00am ET | $26.44 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,325.99 |
+$29.83 (+0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $21.49 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $21.70 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,409.20 |
+$83.21 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 10:30am ET | $25.15 | 334 | $8,398.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 10:50am ET | $26.45 | 334 | $8,834.30 | $8,845.07 |
+$435.87 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 12:35pm ET | $26.05 | 339 | $8,830.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 10:50am ET | $24.05 | 339 | $8,151.26 | $8,165.38 |
$-679.69 (-7.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $23.45 | 348 | $8,160.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 1:20pm ET | $21.80 | 348 | $7,584.66 | $7,589.44 |
$-575.94 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $21.09 | 359 | $7,573.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $22.32 | 359 | $8,012.88 | $8,029.22 |
+$439.78 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $22.01 | 364 | $8,013.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 3:50pm ET | $23.17 | 364 | $8,432.06 | $8,447.82 |
+$418.60 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:05pm ET | $22.92 | 368 | $8,434.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $24.11 | 368 | $8,872.48 | $8,885.74 |
+$437.92 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9.8d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $22.58 | 393 | $8,873.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 12:25pm ET | $23.77 | 393 | $9,343.57 | $9,355.37 |
+$469.63 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.05 | 405 | $9,333.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $24.22 | 405 | $9,809.10 | $9,831.24 |
+$475.87 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $25.08 | 392 | $9,829.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $24.78 | 392 | $9,713.76 | $9,715.60 |
$-115.64 (-1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 11:55am ET | $25.65 | 378 | $9,695.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 3:50pm ET | $23.83 | 378 | $9,009.63 | $9,029.53 |
$-686.07 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $24.68 | 365 | $9,008.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:45am ET | $26.14 | 365 | $9,541.10 | $9,562.43 |
+$532.90 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 1:30pm ET | $25.50 | 374 | $9,538.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $27.02 | 374 | $10,105.48 | $10,129.04 |
+$566.61 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 3:25pm ET | $28.92 | 350 | $10,122.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 3:05pm ET | $26.87 | 350 | $9,404.50 | $9,411.54 |
$-717.50 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $25.55 | 368 | $9,402.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 11:00am ET | $23.74 | 368 | $8,736.36 | $8,745.50 |
$-666.04 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 1:15pm ET | $24.40 | 358 | $8,733.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $25.72 | 358 | $9,207.76 | $9,219.85 |
+$474.35 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.7h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $25.55 | 368 | $9,402.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $25.68 | 368 | $9,450.24 | $9,267.69 |
+$47.84 (+0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
14d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:40am ET | $26.66 | 347 | $9,249.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 10:15am ET | $24.78 | 347 | $8,598.66 | $8,617.07 |
$-650.63 (-7.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 10:45am ET | $24.08 | 357 | $8,596.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $22.36 | 357 | $7,982.52 | $8,003.03 |
$-614.04 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 11:00am ET | $22.50 | 355 | $7,986.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.73 | 355 | $8,424.51 | $8,440.85 |
+$437.82 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:40am ET | $26.66 | 347 | $9,249.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $24.34 | 347 | $8,445.98 | $7,637.54 |
$-803.31 (-8.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 10:35am ET | $23.26 | 328 | $7,628.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 1:50pm ET | $21.62 | 328 | $7,091.36 | $7,100.28 |
$-537.26 (-7.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 2:05pm ET | $24.50 | 289 | $7,080.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 1:30pm ET | $25.74 | 289 | $7,437.42 | $7,457.17 |
+$356.89 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 2:20pm ET | $25.05 | 297 | $7,438.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 2:20pm ET | $26.35 | 297 | $7,827.43 | $7,846.24 |
+$389.07 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 3:20pm ET | $25.33 | 309 | $7,825.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 3:20pm ET | $24.24 | 309 | $7,488.62 | $7,509.43 |
$-336.81 (-4.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $24.26 | 309 | $7,496.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.58 | 309 | $7,286.22 | $7,299.31 |
$-210.12 (-2.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 9:45am ET | $23.96 | 304 | $7,283.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 2:25pm ET | $25.21 | 304 | $7,663.84 | $7,679.31 |
+$380.00 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 1:20pm ET | $23.23 | 330 | $7,664.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $21.56 | 330 | $7,114.80 | $7,129.86 |
$-549.45 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$7,129.86
Net Profit/Loss:
$-2,870.14
Total Return:
-28.70%