Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:01:18

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
13.3 oversold
20d Trend
-41.6%
5d Trend
-28.6%
EMA20 Dist
-26.6%
ATR%
7.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

11
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality 11.6/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 11.3

30-Day Momentum

3
-1.0%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.2 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-8 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,289
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$7,638.25
Current Value
$5,767.99
Period P&L
$-1,870.26
Max Drawdown
-28.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.04

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
71
Winners / Losers
43 / 28
Best Trade
+9.02%
Worst Trade
-23.41%
Avg Trade Return
-0.19%
Avg Hold Time
2.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$424,869.76
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,870.26
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,870.26
Gross Return
-24.49%
Net Return (after fees)
-24.49%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 HOOD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 71 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $7,638.25 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 25, 2025 9:30am ET $122.49 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 25, 2025 10:15am ET $123.96 0 $0.00 $7,729.28 +$91.03
(+1.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Oct 3, 2025 1:50pm ET $145.64 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 3, 2025 2:10pm ET $147.40 0 $0.00 $7,822.58 +$93.30
(+1.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Oct 7, 2025 9:45am ET $142.58 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 7, 2025 9:50am ET $144.81 0 $0.00 $7,943.00 +$120.42
(+1.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 10:55am ET $147.15 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 11:20am ET $144.18 0 $0.00 $7,785.46 $-157.54
(-2.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Oct 13, 2025 10:50am ET $137.44 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 13, 2025 11:45am ET $139.10 0 $0.00 $7,878.42 +$92.96
(+1.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET $135.18 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 14, 2025 10:10am ET $136.64 0 $0.00 $7,963.39 +$84.97
(+1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Oct 17, 2025 9:40am ET $127.68 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 17, 2025 9:50am ET $129.89 0 $0.00 $8,100.10 +$136.71
(+1.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Oct 21, 2025 9:30am ET $133.93 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 22, 2025 9:30am ET $129.38 0 $0.00 $7,827.01 $-273.09
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Oct 22, 2025 9:35am ET $128.61 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 22, 2025 10:20am ET $125.98 0 $0.00 $7,669.35 $-157.66
(-2.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Oct 29, 2025 2:35pm ET $143.03 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 29, 2025 2:50pm ET $145.53 0 $0.00 $7,802.12 +$132.77
(+1.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Oct 30, 2025 9:35am ET $139.99 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 30, 2025 9:45am ET $141.60 0 $0.00 $7,890.39 +$88.27
(+1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Nov 3, 2025 10:25am ET $143.46 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 3, 2025 11:15am ET $145.00 0 $0.00 $7,975.09 +$84.70
(+1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Nov 6, 2025 9:30am ET $138.16 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2025 9:40am ET $134.69 0 $0.00 $7,777.04 $-198.05
(-2.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET $122.06 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 7, 2025 9:50am ET $123.73 0 $0.00 $7,882.25 +$105.21
(+1.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Nov 10, 2025 11:05am ET $132.79 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2025 11:55am ET $134.15 0 $0.00 $7,962.41 +$80.16
(+1.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Nov 13, 2025 9:30am ET $129.18 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 13, 2025 9:40am ET $126.45 0 $0.00 $7,795.88 $-166.53
(-2.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET $115.95 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 14, 2025 9:35am ET $118.53 0 $0.00 $7,968.74 +$172.86
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET $118.70 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 9:50am ET $120.86 0 $0.00 $8,113.67 +$144.93
(+1.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2025 11:05am ET $116.88 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 11:25am ET $114.31 0 $0.00 $7,936.68 $-176.99
(-2.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 10:25am ET $103.80 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 21, 2025 11:20am ET $105.73 0 $0.00 $8,083.36 +$146.68
(+1.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Nov 25, 2025 9:35am ET $111.76 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 11:20am ET $113.12 0 $0.00 $8,181.28 +$97.92
(+1.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Dec 1, 2025 9:30am ET $123.37 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 1, 2025 9:50am ET $124.98 0 $0.00 $8,287.54 +$106.26
(+1.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
23 🟢 BUY Dec 5, 2025 9:35am ET $132.88 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 5, 2025 11:35am ET $130.18 0 $0.00 $8,120.14 $-167.40
(-2.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
24 🟢 BUY Dec 10, 2025 9:30am ET $134.24 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 10, 2025 10:05am ET $136.24 0 $0.00 $8,239.84 +$119.70
(+1.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
25 🟢 BUY Dec 11, 2025 9:30am ET $128.98 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 9:55am ET $125.70 0 $0.00 $8,032.88 $-206.96
(-2.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
26 🟢 BUY Dec 12, 2025 11:00am ET $119.26 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 12, 2025 12:10pm ET $120.68 0 $0.00 $8,128.02 +$95.14
(+1.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
27 🟢 BUY Dec 17, 2025 10:55am ET $119.16 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 17, 2025 11:05am ET $121.05 0 $0.00 $8,256.27 +$128.25
(+1.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
28 🟢 BUY Dec 23, 2025 9:35am ET $119.47 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 23, 2025 2:05pm ET $120.73 0 $0.00 $8,343.80 +$87.53
(+1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
29 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET $118.46 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 11:15am ET $119.72 0 $0.00 $8,432.25 +$88.45
(+1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
30 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 9:40am ET $116.86 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 9:45am ET $118.05 0 $0.00 $8,517.93 +$85.68
(+1.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
31 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 3:15pm ET $110.76 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 9:50am ET $107.94 0 $0.00 $8,303.41 $-214.52
(-2.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
32 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 9:55am ET $106.92 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 10:00am ET $108.04 0 $0.00 $8,389.26 +$85.85
(+1.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
33 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $105.79 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 10:25am ET $107.11 0 $0.00 $8,493.67 +$104.41
(+1.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
34 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 10:40am ET $99.95 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 12:05pm ET $100.98 0 $0.00 $8,580.19 +$86.52
(+1.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
35 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET $93.50 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 9:40am ET $91.18 0 $0.00 $8,369.06 $-211.13
(-2.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
36 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET $82.66 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 9:55am ET $80.42 0 $0.00 $8,142.78 $-226.28
(-2.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
37 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 9:55am ET $76.72 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET $74.56 0 $0.00 $7,912.76 $-230.02
(-2.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
38 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 9:30am ET $76.80 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 10:00am ET $74.92 0 $0.00 $7,719.55 $-193.21
(-2.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
39 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 9:40am ET $75.24 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 10:20am ET $73.65 0 $0.00 $7,557.06 $-162.49
(-2.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
40 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2026 10:15am ET $81.05 93 $7,537.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 11:10am ET $75.34 93 $7,006.62 $7,026.03 $-531.03
(-7.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
41 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 3:25pm ET $72.92 96 $7,000.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 9:30am ET $77.06 96 $7,397.28 $7,422.99 +$396.96
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
42 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET $76.71 96 $7,364.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 12:50pm ET $71.32 96 $6,846.72 $6,905.55 $-517.44
(-7.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
43 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 3:50pm ET $72.64 95 $6,900.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:45am ET $67.39 95 $6,402.05 $6,406.80 $-498.75
(-7.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.7d held
44 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 2:55pm ET $64.17 99 $6,352.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 12:45pm ET $68.31 99 $6,762.69 $6,816.66 +$409.86
(+6.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.8h held
45 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $67.19 101 $6,786.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 12:35pm ET $70.58 101 $7,129.08 $7,159.15 +$342.49
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held
46 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 2:25pm ET $72.16 99 $7,143.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET $77.15 99 $7,638.34 $7,653.64 +$494.49
(+6.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held
47 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 12:50pm ET $85.36 89 $7,596.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $90.10 89 $8,018.90 $8,075.94 +$422.30
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
48 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $89.70 90 $8,073.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 1:20pm ET $83.39 90 $7,505.10 $7,508.04 $-567.90
(-7.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held
49 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 3:35pm ET $84.45 88 $7,431.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $72.15 88 $6,349.00 $6,425.44 $-1,082.60
(-14.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.7d held
50 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 12:35pm ET $72.66 88 $6,394.46 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 9:35am ET $77.33 88 $6,805.04 $6,836.02 +$410.58
(+6.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
51 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 11:25am ET $77.39 88 $6,810.27 — — —
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 12:15pm ET $81.29 88 $7,153.66 $7,179.41 +$343.39
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
52 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 9:30am ET $75.97 94 $7,140.90 — — —
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 9:30am ET $74.73 94 $7,024.62 $7,063.13 $-116.28
(-1.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
53 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 2:50pm ET $92.13 76 $7,001.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET $85.11 76 $6,468.36 $6,529.61 $-533.52
(-7.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
54 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:35am ET $86.17 75 $6,462.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 2:00pm ET $80.06 75 $6,004.50 $6,071.36 $-458.25
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.4h held
55 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 11:15am ET $87.11 69 $6,010.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 2:00pm ET $91.59 69 $6,319.71 $6,380.48 +$309.12
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
56 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 2:55pm ET $98.93 64 $6,331.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 10:55am ET $104.20 64 $6,668.80 $6,717.44 +$336.96
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
57 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 2:45pm ET $105.79 63 $6,664.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 10:20am ET $97.77 63 $6,159.51 $6,212.18 $-505.26
(-7.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
58 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 2:40pm ET $93.71 66 $6,184.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 3:50pm ET $98.90 66 $6,527.40 $6,554.72 +$342.54
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
59 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 9:35am ET $101.14 64 $6,472.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 11:00am ET $107.56 64 $6,883.84 $6,965.59 +$410.87
(+6.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
60 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 12:30pm ET $111.34 62 $6,903.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 11:40am ET $117.37 62 $7,276.94 $7,339.45 +$373.86
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
61 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 2:50pm ET $113.99 64 $7,295.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 3:35pm ET $105.93 64 $6,779.84 $6,823.93 $-515.52
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9d held
62 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 3:55pm ET $99.97 68 $6,797.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET $105.43 68 $7,168.90 $7,194.87 +$370.94
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.7d held
63 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 9:35am ET $105.61 68 $7,181.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 9:30am ET $97.53 68 $6,632.04 $6,645.77 $-549.10
(-7.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
64 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 2:50pm ET $113.99 64 $7,295.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $87.31 64 $5,587.84 $4,938.25 $-1,707.52
(-23.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8d held
65 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET $84.67 58 $4,910.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 10:00am ET $89.71 58 $5,203.18 $5,230.57 +$292.32
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
66 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 2:40pm ET $92.20 56 $5,163.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET $96.98 56 $5,431.08 $5,498.47 +$267.90
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.8d held
67 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2026 9:30am ET $97.85 56 $5,479.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 9:40am ET $103.69 56 $5,806.64 $5,825.51 +$327.04
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
68 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:40am ET $104.74 55 $5,760.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 10:35am ET $110.26 55 $6,064.43 $6,129.52 +$304.01
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
69 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:35am ET $107.72 56 $6,032.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $117.44 56 $6,576.64 $6,673.56 +$544.04
(+9.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
70 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $121.00 55 $6,655.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $112.50 55 $6,187.50 $6,206.06 $-467.50
(-7.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
71 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 9:35am ET $112.58 55 $6,192.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 12:10pm ET $104.62 55 $5,754.10 $5,767.99 $-438.07
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $5,767.99
Net Profit/Loss: $-4,232.01
Total Return: -42.32%
Back to Reversion