Compendium › Reversion › ISRG
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ISRG
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 27 trades in period

-28.72%
Last Year Return
$7,012.89
Current Value
44%
Win Rate
$9,838.48
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:06:28

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
24.1 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-4.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

8
Lifetime
Confidence: 87%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
4.5/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 9.7/100
× Confidence 0.87 = 8.4

30-Day Momentum

8
+1.1%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 11.9 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-1 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (87%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
21,135
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
261 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$9,838.48
Current Value
$7,012.89
Period P&L
$-2,825.60
Max Drawdown
-12.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.16

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
27
Winners / Losers
12 / 15
Best Trade
+7.99%
Worst Trade
-18.91%
Avg Trade Return
-0.99%
Avg Hold Time
7.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$357,937.63
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,825.60
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,825.60
Gross Return
-28.72%
Net Return (after fees)
-28.72%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ISRG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 261 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 27 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,838.48 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 1, 2025 10:25am ET $435.30 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 1, 2025 2:05pm ET $440.08 0 $0.00 $9,943.64 +$105.16
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET $554.34 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET $549.01 0 $0.00 $9,853.03 $-90.61
(-1.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 10:15am ET $569.23 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 10:05am ET $557.13 0 $0.00 $9,647.24 $-205.79
(-2.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 9:30am ET $547.81 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 10:00am ET $536.55 0 $0.00 $9,455.82 $-191.42
(-2.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 9:55am ET $466.44 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 10:05am ET $471.68 0 $0.00 $9,560.72 +$104.90
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $485.30 19 $9,220.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 10:30am ET $484.23 19 $9,200.37 $9,540.30 $-20.42
(-0.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 1:40pm ET $484.70 19 $9,209.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 1:40pm ET $452.61 19 $8,599.59 $8,930.49 $-609.81
(-6.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 2:20pm ET $450.56 19 $8,560.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 2:20pm ET $457.36 19 $8,689.84 $9,059.69 +$129.20
(+1.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET $449.00 20 $8,980.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:35am ET $472.67 20 $9,453.30 $9,532.99 +$473.30
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 9:40am ET $465.02 20 $9,300.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 10:15am ET $489.64 20 $9,792.90 $10,025.39 +$492.40
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 1:25pm ET $478.26 20 $9,565.20 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 9:30am ET $456.98 20 $9,139.60 $9,599.79 $-425.60
(-4.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10.8d held
12 🟢 BUY May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $447.42 21 $9,395.82 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:30am ET $422.75 21 $8,877.75 $9,081.72 $-518.07
(-5.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held
13 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 9:30am ET $435.96 20 $8,719.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $420.46 20 $8,409.30 $8,771.82 $-309.90
(-3.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $406.57 21 $8,537.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 12:15pm ET $427.69 21 $8,981.49 $9,215.45 +$443.63
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 12:40pm ET $423.48 21 $8,893.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET $400.80 21 $8,416.70 $8,739.07 $-476.38
(-5.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
12.9d held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 11:10am ET $400.09 21 $8,401.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 10:55am ET $420.17 21 $8,823.57 $9,160.75 +$421.68
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
9d held
17 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 11:05am ET $433.00 21 $9,093.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $388.79 21 $8,164.59 $8,232.34 $-928.41
(-10.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
18 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 1:55pm ET $389.48 21 $8,179.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $357.72 21 $7,512.12 $7,565.38 $-666.96
(-8.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
19 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 10:00am ET $343.18 22 $7,549.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 9:50am ET $361.64 22 $7,956.08 $7,971.50 +$406.12
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
20 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 9:50am ET $346.30 23 $7,964.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET $373.98 23 $8,601.43 $8,608.03 +$636.53
(+8.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6d held
21 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 11:05am ET $433.00 21 $9,093.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $351.13 21 $7,373.63 $6,888.66 $-1,719.38
(-18.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.9d held
22 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 3:00pm ET $372.82 18 $6,710.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $393.00 18 $7,074.00 $7,251.90 +$363.24
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7d held
23 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 9:50am ET $397.27 18 $7,150.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $379.71 18 $6,834.87 $6,935.82 $-316.08
(-4.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held
24 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 9:50am ET $397.27 18 $7,150.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $368.49 18 $6,632.82 $6,417.69 $-518.13
(-7.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
14d held
25 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 10:05am ET $368.05 17 $6,256.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $359.80 17 $6,116.60 $6,277.47 $-140.22
(-2.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held
26 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $349.96 17 $5,949.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 9:35am ET $374.04 17 $6,358.68 $6,686.75 +$409.28
(+6.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
27 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 2:20pm ET $374.09 17 $6,359.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:45am ET $393.27 17 $6,685.67 $7,012.89 +$326.14
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,012.89
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,987.11
Total Return: -29.87%
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