Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-06-23 18:25:42

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
16.8
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.46%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.66
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.2
Unsettled
RSI(14)
79.9 overbought
20d Trend
+11.9%
5d Trend
+9.6%
EMA20 Dist
+7.7%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
96%
Bounce Ratio
5.6×
Green/Red 10d
7/3

Strategy Score Scored Jun 23, 2026

33
Lifetime
Confidence: 76%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
12.4/35
Total Return
10.6/25
Win Rate
10.0/15
Profit Factor
3.1/15
Consistency
7.7/10
Raw Quality 43.7/100
× Confidence 0.76 = 33.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (76%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
24,971
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-06-23 → 2026-06-23
Trading Days
264 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$10,930.90
Current Value
$11,767.06
Period P&L
$836.16
Max Drawdown
-2.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.16

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
8 / 6
Best Trade
+6.43%
Worst Trade
-7.13%
Avg Trade Return
+0.60%
Avg Hold Time
6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$235,206.30
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$836.16
Net P&L (after fees)
$836.16
Gross Return
+7.65%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.65%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 264 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,930.90 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2025 9:30am ET $77.76 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2025 9:50am ET $78.60 0 $0.00 $11,049.20 +$118.30
(+1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Oct 30, 2025 9:30am ET $84.57 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Oct 30, 2025 10:10am ET $85.51 0 $0.00 $11,171.40 +$122.20
(+1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Dec 16, 2025 9:40am ET $97.11 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Dec 16, 2025 11:25am ET $98.11 0 $0.00 $11,286.69 +$115.29
(+1.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 9:35am ET $119.04 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 9:35am ET $117.62 0 $0.00 $11,152.74 $-133.95
(-1.2%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $114.18 97 $11,075.46
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 10:30am ET $115.35 97 $11,188.95 $11,266.23 +$113.49
(+1.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 1:00pm ET $115.38 97 $11,191.38
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 1:00pm ET $120.59 97 $11,697.23 $11,772.08 +$505.85
(+4.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 3:25pm ET $117.62 100 $11,762.00
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 3:35pm ET $123.62 100 $12,362.00 $12,372.08 +$600.00
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
9d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 9:30am ET $121.51 101 $12,273.01
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $118.04 101 $11,922.04 $12,021.11 $-350.97
(-2.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET $116.53 103 $12,002.08
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $108.22 103 $11,146.66 $11,165.69 $-855.42
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 9:35am ET $108.99 102 $11,116.98
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 10:20am ET $114.46 102 $11,674.92 $11,723.63 +$557.94
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
11 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 2:30pm ET $113.20 103 $11,659.60
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 2:30pm ET $112.65 103 $11,602.94 $11,666.97 $-56.66
(-0.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
12 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 10:10am ET $113.56 102 $11,583.38
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 9:30am ET $120.86 102 $12,327.72 $12,411.32 +$744.35
(+6.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
13 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 9:35am ET $121.96 101 $12,318.46
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:35am ET $121.45 101 $12,266.45 $12,359.31 $-52.01
(-0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 3:40pm ET $119.55 103 $12,313.65
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET $113.80 103 $11,721.40 $11,767.06 $-592.25
(-4.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
12.7d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,767.06
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,767.06
Total Return: +17.67%
Back to Reversion