NVDA Reversion's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 43 trades in period
+14.63%
Last Year Return
$10,434.15
Current Value
60%
Win Rate
$9,102.06
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
19
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.8/35
Total Return
6.0/25
Win Rate
7.7/15
Profit Factor
0.2/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality
19.3/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 19.0
30-Day Momentum
22
+4.6%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 33.5
Conf: 0.66×
Steady (+3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,908
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$9,102.06
Current Value
$10,434.15
Period P&L
$1,332.08
Max Drawdown
-18.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
43
Winners / Losers
26 /
17
Best Trade
+7.28%
Worst Trade
-8.05%
Avg Trade Return
+0.42%
Avg Hold Time
4.1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$469,808.64
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,332.08
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,332.08
Gross Return
+14.63%
Net Return (after fees)
+14.63%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 43 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,102.06 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 11:20am ET | $188.50 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 3:50pm ET | $184.12 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,891.82 |
$-210.24 (-2.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $181.34 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 12:25pm ET | $183.44 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,994.78 |
+$102.96 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 30, 2025 9:35am ET | $201.86 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 30, 2025 9:45am ET | $204.09 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,093.00 |
+$98.22 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $201.22 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 9:50am ET | $203.86 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,211.58 |
+$118.58 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 3:55pm ET | $195.15 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 10:35am ET | $190.86 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,009.95 |
$-201.63 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 10:40am ET | $190.47 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $184.71 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,739.23 |
$-270.72 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 9:35am ET | $182.22 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 1:20pm ET | $184.07 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,826.37 |
+$87.14 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 9:40am ET | $193.91 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 9:40am ET | $192.96 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,783.85 |
$-42.52 (-0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 9:40am ET | $187.08 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 10:05am ET | $189.13 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,878.15 |
+$94.30 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $181.73 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 9:35am ET | $184.32 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,002.35 |
+$124.20 (+1.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 9:55am ET | $180.43 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 11:20am ET | $182.29 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,093.73 |
+$91.38 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 11:15am ET | $189.27 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 11:55am ET | $185.26 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,901.61 |
$-192.12 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 9:35am ET | $177.59 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 9:50am ET | $180.44 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,044.29 |
+$142.68 (+1.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $173.99 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 10:00am ET | $169.90 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,835.68 |
$-208.61 (-2.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $178.48 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 2:15pm ET | $180.51 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,934.91 |
+$99.23 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $186.64 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $187.84 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,991.31 |
+$56.40 (+0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $182.09 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 3:20pm ET | $178.44 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,812.46 |
$-178.85 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:55am ET | $181.83 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 2:00pm ET | $178.12 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,634.38 |
$-178.08 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $183.87 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $182.63 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,577.34 |
$-57.04 (-0.7%) |
📅 Sim Ended
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 3:15pm ET | $178.73 | 47 | $8,400.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 3:10pm ET | $188.33 | 47 | $8,851.37 | $9,028.63 |
+$451.29 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $181.93 | 49 | $8,914.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:55am ET | $168.56 | 49 | $8,259.44 | $8,373.26 |
$-655.38 (-7.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.8d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 10:00am ET | $166.54 | 50 | $8,327.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $175.74 | 50 | $8,787.00 | $8,833.26 |
+$460.00 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $172.08 | 51 | $8,776.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.60 | 51 | $9,414.60 | $9,471.78 |
+$638.52 (+7.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $180.97 | 52 | $9,410.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $191.50 | 52 | $9,958.00 | $10,019.34 |
+$547.56 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 12:30pm ET | $199.10 | 50 | $9,954.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 11:10am ET | $209.44 | 50 | $10,472.00 | $10,536.59 |
+$517.25 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $209.21 | 50 | $10,460.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $213.07 | 50 | $10,653.25 | $10,729.34 |
+$192.75 (+1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $214.04 | 50 | $10,702.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $224.76 | 50 | $11,238.25 | $11,265.34 |
+$536.00 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 1:15pm ET | $233.80 | 48 | $11,222.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 10:05am ET | $216.26 | 48 | $10,380.48 | $10,423.42 |
$-841.92 (-7.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 9:45am ET | $210.88 | 49 | $10,332.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 10:25am ET | $221.95 | 49 | $10,875.55 | $10,966.09 |
+$542.67 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 1:15pm ET | $224.49 | 48 | $10,775.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 11:25am ET | $208.71 | 48 | $10,018.08 | $10,208.65 |
$-757.44 (-7.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 3:10pm ET | $208.28 | 49 | $10,205.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 3:10pm ET | $210.18 | 49 | $10,298.82 | $10,301.75 |
+$93.10 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 3:30pm ET | $208.08 | 49 | $10,195.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $192.38 | 49 | $9,426.86 | $9,532.69 |
$-769.06 (-7.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 3:30pm ET | $208.08 | 49 | $10,195.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $194.48 | 49 | $9,529.52 | $8,866.29 |
$-666.40 (-6.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
13.8d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $192.15 | 46 | $8,838.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 1:25pm ET | $202.69 | 46 | $9,323.76 | $9,351.15 |
+$484.86 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $202.04 | 46 | $9,293.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 2:30pm ET | $212.29 | 46 | $9,765.11 | $9,822.42 |
+$471.27 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $209.40 | 46 | $9,632.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $205.73 | 46 | $9,463.58 | $9,653.60 |
$-168.82 (-1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
11d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $202.04 | 46 | $9,293.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $192.21 | 46 | $8,841.89 | $9,201.65 |
$-451.95 (-4.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 3:40pm ET | $207.19 | 44 | $9,116.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $218.27 | 44 | $9,603.88 | $9,689.17 |
+$487.52 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.7d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 3:50pm ET | $219.02 | 44 | $9,636.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $225.46 | 44 | $9,920.24 | $9,972.53 |
+$283.36 (+2.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10.7d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $220.55 | 45 | $9,924.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $227.37 | 45 | $10,231.43 | $10,278.98 |
+$306.45 (+3.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 2:25pm ET | $218.97 | 46 | $10,072.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 1:45pm ET | $229.93 | 46 | $10,576.78 | $10,783.14 |
+$504.16 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 3:30pm ET | $229.69 | 46 | $10,565.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $211.20 | 46 | $9,715.20 | $9,932.75 |
$-850.39 (-8.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.8d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 1:05pm ET | $211.44 | 46 | $9,726.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $222.34 | 46 | $10,227.64 | $10,434.15 |
+$501.40 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,434.15
Net Profit/Loss:
+$434.15
Total Return:
+4.34%