PANW Reversion's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 39 trades in period
+60.97%
Last Year Return
$16,157.79
Current Value
69%
Win Rate
$10,037.69
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
18.4 oversold
20d Trend
-19.1%
5d Trend
-12.6%
EMA20 Dist
-11.6%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
52
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
21.4/35
Total Return
14.9/25
Win Rate
9.0/15
Profit Factor
3.4/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality
55.1/100
× Confidence 0.95
= 52.2
30-Day Momentum
24
+6.0%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 36.0
Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-28 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
22,543
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$10,037.69
Current Value
$16,157.79
Period P&L
$6,120.10
Max Drawdown
-10.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.25
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
39
Winners / Losers
27 /
12
Best Trade
+19.48%
Worst Trade
-9.23%
Avg Trade Return
+1.47%
Avg Hold Time
4.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$766,042.39
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$6,120.10
Net P&L (after fees)
$6,120.10
Gross Return
+60.97%
Net Return (after fees)
+60.97%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 PANW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 39 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,037.69 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 9:35am ET | $208.22 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 9:35am ET | $208.33 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,042.97 |
+$5.28 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $216.32 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 29, 2025 9:35am ET | $219.38 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,183.73 |
+$140.76 (+1.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $199.12 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 9:35am ET | $201.25 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,292.36 |
+$108.63 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 10:05am ET | $192.62 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 10:15am ET | $195.01 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,419.29 |
+$126.93 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $190.53 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $191.20 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,455.47 |
+$36.18 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 10:05am ET | $183.09 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:20am ET | $185.46 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,590.85 |
+$135.38 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $179.96 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:55am ET | $175.30 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,320.57 |
$-270.28 (-2.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:40am ET | $170.79 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:15am ET | $167.27 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,109.67 |
$-210.90 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:50am ET | $160.99 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 10:10am ET | $164.20 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,308.38 |
+$198.71 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $162.26 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 2:30pm ET | $158.46 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,068.98 |
$-239.40 (-2.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $161.64 | 62 | $10,021.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $170.04 | 62 | $10,542.79 | $10,590.09 |
+$521.11 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 12:05pm ET | $169.28 | 62 | $10,495.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:05am ET | $157.26 | 62 | $9,750.12 | $9,844.85 |
$-745.24 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET | $156.70 | 62 | $9,715.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:45am ET | $145.43 | 62 | $9,016.66 | $9,146.11 |
$-698.74 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:50am ET | $158.17 | 57 | $9,015.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:15pm ET | $167.74 | 57 | $9,561.18 | $9,691.60 |
+$545.49 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.2d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $169.73 | 57 | $9,674.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $157.54 | 57 | $8,979.50 | $8,996.49 |
$-695.11 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 1:25pm ET | $160.71 | 55 | $8,839.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $170.40 | 55 | $9,372.00 | $9,529.34 |
+$532.85 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $166.61 | 57 | $9,496.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:55am ET | $175.35 | 57 | $9,995.23 | $10,027.80 |
+$498.46 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $173.73 | 57 | $9,902.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 10:25am ET | $182.50 | 57 | $10,402.50 | $10,527.69 |
+$499.89 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 3:45pm ET | $182.13 | 57 | $10,381.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $195.71 | 57 | $11,155.47 | $11,301.75 |
+$774.06 (+7.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.7d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 2:55pm ET | $204.14 | 55 | $11,227.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $214.37 | 55 | $11,790.35 | $11,864.53 |
+$562.78 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $213.04 | 55 | $11,717.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 2:30pm ET | $223.72 | 55 | $12,304.60 | $12,451.93 |
+$587.40 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $234.95 | 52 | $12,217.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 10:10am ET | $246.81 | 52 | $12,834.12 | $13,068.91 |
+$616.98 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 11:40am ET | $243.58 | 53 | $12,909.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $256.08 | 53 | $13,571.98 | $13,731.15 |
+$662.24 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 9:40am ET | $251.99 | 54 | $13,607.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 9:40am ET | $265.49 | 54 | $14,336.46 | $14,460.15 |
+$729.00 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $288.97 | 50 | $14,448.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $266.42 | 50 | $13,321.25 | $13,332.90 |
$-1,127.25 (-7.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $265.09 | 50 | $13,254.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 3:55pm ET | $278.64 | 50 | $13,932.00 | $14,010.40 |
+$677.50 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 2:35pm ET | $282.89 | 49 | $13,861.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 2:35pm ET | $293.66 | 49 | $14,389.34 | $14,537.89 |
+$527.49 (+3.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 2:50pm ET | $297.32 | 48 | $14,271.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $316.31 | 48 | $15,182.88 | $15,449.65 |
+$911.76 (+6.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 2:35pm ET | $282.89 | 49 | $13,861.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $337.99 | 49 | $16,561.51 | $18,149.31 |
+$2,699.66 (+19.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.8d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:55am ET | $346.62 | 52 | $18,024.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 10:15am ET | $321.11 | 52 | $16,697.72 | $16,822.79 |
$-1,326.52 (-7.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 10:25am ET | $332.49 | 50 | $16,624.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 10:35am ET | $349.66 | 50 | $17,483.00 | $17,681.04 |
+$858.25 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $351.71 | 50 | $17,585.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $324.72 | 50 | $16,235.80 | $16,331.34 |
$-1,349.70 (-7.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 10:25am ET | $332.49 | 50 | $16,624.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $318.50 | 50 | $15,925.00 | $15,631.59 |
$-699.75 (-4.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 3:25pm ET | $363.82 | 42 | $15,280.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 11:50am ET | $382.39 | 42 | $16,060.38 | $16,411.53 |
+$779.94 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 2:25pm ET | $381.26 | 43 | $16,394.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 10:10am ET | $353.99 | 43 | $15,221.57 | $15,238.92 |
$-1,172.61 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.8d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 11:20am ET | $351.76 | 43 | $15,125.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $369.96 | 43 | $15,908.28 | $16,021.52 |
+$782.60 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 9:40am ET | $368.73 | 43 | $15,855.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $334.69 | 43 | $14,391.67 | $14,557.59 |
$-1,463.93 (-9.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 3:50pm ET | $328.24 | 44 | $14,442.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $346.24 | 44 | $15,234.65 | $15,349.68 |
+$792.09 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10.7d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $368.28 | 41 | $15,099.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 11:05am ET | $387.99 | 41 | $15,907.59 | $16,157.79 |
+$808.11 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$16,157.79
Net Profit/Loss:
+$6,157.79
Total Return:
+61.58%