Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:08:07

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
23.9 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-9.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
3.4%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

10
Lifetime
Confidence: 91%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality 10.7/100
× Confidence 0.91 = 9.8

30-Day Momentum

0
-5.8%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (91%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$6,393.21
Current Value
$6,562.41
Period P&L
$169.20
Max Drawdown
-11.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.08

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
12
Winners / Losers
7 / 5
Best Trade
+6.12%
Worst Trade
-8.56%
Avg Trade Return
+0.47%
Avg Hold Time
4.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$169,685.75
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$169.20
Net P&L (after fees)
$169.20
Gross Return
+2.65%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.65%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ADBE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 12 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $6,393.21 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 9:35am ET $192.96 32 $6,174.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 3:50pm ET $202.65 32 $6,484.64 $6,672.41 +$310.00
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.3d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET $204.85 32 $6,555.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET $217.38 32 $6,956.32 $7,073.53 +$401.12
(+6.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $215.46 32 $6,894.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 11:20am ET $226.78 32 $7,256.96 $7,435.93 +$362.40
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $214.09 34 $7,279.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET $226.50 34 $7,701.00 $7,857.87 +$421.94
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 3:15pm ET $229.39 34 $7,799.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 11:40am ET $213.17 34 $7,247.78 $7,306.39 $-551.48
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 3:10pm ET $239.26 30 $7,177.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 11:15am ET $251.59 30 $7,547.55 $7,676.29 +$369.90
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.1h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 12:35pm ET $261.74 29 $7,590.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 10:30am ET $242.81 29 $7,041.49 $7,127.23 $-549.06
(-7.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.9h held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 1:45pm ET $252.73 28 $7,076.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 10:05am ET $265.92 28 $7,445.76 $7,496.55 +$369.32
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 2:45pm ET $271.33 27 $7,326.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 12:05pm ET $251.63 27 $6,794.06 $6,964.57 $-531.98
(-7.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 2:45pm ET $265.32 26 $6,898.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $279.18 26 $7,258.68 $7,324.93 +$360.36
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.8d held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 12:25pm ET $291.67 25 $7,291.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $266.70 25 $6,667.50 $6,700.68 $-624.25
(-8.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $256.90 26 $6,679.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $251.58 26 $6,541.13 $6,562.41 $-138.27
(-2.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,562.41
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,437.59
Total Return: -34.38%
Back to Reversion