Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 19:28:34

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.4 neutral
20d Trend
-15.2%
5d Trend
-20.7%
EMA20 Dist
-16.9%
ATR%
7.4%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

46
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
14.4/35
Total Return
16.6/25
Win Rate
7.4/15
Profit Factor
3.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 46.9/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 46.0

30-Day Momentum

9
+0.6%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 14.2 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-37 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$19,190.49
Current Value
$19,832.78
Period P&L
$642.29
Max Drawdown
-23.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.02

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
9 / 6
Best Trade
+6.03%
Worst Trade
-7.35%
Avg Trade Return
+0.13%
Avg Hold Time
4.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$578,438.68
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$642.29
Net P&L (after fees)
$642.29
Gross Return
+3.35%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.35%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AMD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $19,190.49 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 9:35am ET $542.51 36 $19,530.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:35am ET $507.44 36 $18,267.84 $18,695.13 $-1,262.34
(-6.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 10:05am ET $508.80 36 $18,316.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 1:10pm ET $534.49 36 $19,241.82 $19,620.15 +$925.02
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.1h held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET $554.11 35 $19,393.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 11:15am ET $515.23 35 $18,033.05 $18,259.35 $-1,360.80
(-7.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $516.08 35 $18,062.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 9:35am ET $547.17 35 $19,150.95 $19,347.67 +$1,088.32
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET $535.52 36 $19,278.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $562.40 36 $20,246.40 $20,315.53 +$967.86
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 10:00am ET $543.64 37 $20,114.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 12:00pm ET $504.34 37 $18,660.58 $18,861.43 $-1,454.10
(-7.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 2:10pm ET $497.30 37 $18,400.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET $526.61 37 $19,484.57 $19,945.90 +$1,084.47
(+5.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $547.30 36 $19,702.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 9:40am ET $507.08 36 $18,254.88 $18,497.80 $-1,448.10
(-7.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 9:40am ET $455.61 40 $18,224.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:55am ET $479.33 40 $19,173.00 $19,446.60 +$948.80
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 2:15pm ET $486.27 39 $18,964.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 9:40am ET $511.86 39 $19,962.54 $20,444.41 +$997.81
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 9:40am ET $494.60 41 $20,278.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET $514.39 41 $21,089.99 $21,255.80 +$811.39
(+4.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $488.00 43 $20,984.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 10:00am ET $452.19 43 $19,444.17 $19,715.97 $-1,539.83
(-7.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $475.04 41 $19,476.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $488.88 41 $20,044.08 $20,283.41 +$567.44
(+2.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
13d held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 2:55pm ET $521.06 38 $19,800.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:35am ET $483.48 38 $18,372.43 $18,855.56 $-1,427.85
(-7.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 1:00pm ET $520.93 36 $18,753.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 12:10pm ET $548.08 36 $19,730.70 $19,832.78 +$977.22
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.2h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $19,832.78
Net Profit/Loss: +$9,832.78
Total Return: +98.33%
Back to Reversion