Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:08:38

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.1 oversold
20d Trend
-18.5%
5d Trend
-17.4%
EMA20 Dist
-14.4%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

21
Lifetime
Confidence: 85%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.7/35
Total Return
7.0/25
Win Rate
9.1/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
6.3/10
Raw Quality 24.6/100
× Confidence 0.85 = 21.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (85%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$-304.95
Current Value
$10,291.28
Period P&L
$-489.03
Max Drawdown
-12.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.23

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
9
Winners / Losers
3 / 6
Best Trade
+5.11%
Worst Trade
-6.36%
Avg Trade Return
-1.02%
Avg Hold Time
11d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$209,070.61
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-489.03
Net P&L (after fees)
$-489.03
Gross Return
+0.00%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.00%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AMZN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 9 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $-304.95 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $232.55 49 $11,394.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 10:15am ET $244.44 49 $11,977.56 $11,982.29 +$582.61
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $232.55 49 $11,394.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $243.63 49 $11,937.63 $12,524.96 +$542.67
(+4.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
13d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $244.18 51 $12,453.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 10:30am ET $256.55 51 $13,084.30 $13,155.93 +$630.97
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
8d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 12:05pm ET $247.71 53 $13,128.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 12:05pm ET $231.96 53 $12,293.89 $12,321.19 $-834.74
(-6.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $244.18 51 $12,453.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $232.93 51 $11,879.43 $11,747.29 $-573.90
(-4.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
22d held
6 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $276.73 42 $11,622.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 9:30am ET $264.88 42 $11,124.75 $11,249.38 $-497.91
(-4.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 9:35am ET $261.60 43 $11,248.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:35am ET $257.92 43 $11,090.56 $11,091.04 $-158.34
(-1.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $261.96 42 $11,002.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $250.22 42 $10,509.24 $10,597.96 $-493.08
(-4.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $253.43 41 $10,390.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET $245.95 41 $10,083.75 $10,291.28 $-306.68
(-3.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,291.28
Net Profit/Loss: +$291.28
Total Return: +2.91%
Back to Reversion