Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-24 20:15:13

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
46.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+2.4%
EMA20 Dist
-0.9%
ATR%
6.3%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

36
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.8/35
Total Return
14.2/25
Win Rate
8.9/15
Profit Factor
1.3/15
Consistency
5.3/10
Raw Quality 36.5/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 36.3

30-Day Momentum

28
+7.3%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 37.7 Conf: 0.74×
Cooling (-8 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$15,193.57
Current Value
$15,075.84
Period P&L
$-117.73
Max Drawdown
-26.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.03

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
21
Winners / Losers
12 / 9
Best Trade
+10.06%
Worst Trade
-8.08%
Avg Trade Return
+0.17%
Avg Hold Time
2.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$563,928.58
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-117.73
Net P&L (after fees)
$-117.73
Gross Return
-0.77%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.77%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 21 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $15,193.57 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 9:40am ET $361.16 42 $15,168.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET $332.77 42 $13,976.34 $14,001.28 $-1,192.29
(-7.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 9:45am ET $324.53 43 $13,954.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 12:50pm ET $341.85 43 $14,699.55 $14,746.04 +$744.76
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.1h held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 3:30pm ET $355.58 41 $14,578.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 10:40am ET $329.52 41 $13,510.32 $13,677.79 $-1,068.26
(-7.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 1:45pm ET $322.13 42 $13,529.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 10:45am ET $298.16 42 $12,522.85 $12,671.18 $-1,006.61
(-7.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 11:10am ET $298.40 42 $12,533.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $325.53 42 $13,672.26 $13,810.43 +$1,139.25
(+9.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET $324.03 42 $13,609.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:35am ET $300.01 42 $12,600.53 $12,801.70 $-1,008.73
(-7.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 9:35am ET $286.82 44 $12,619.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 12:35pm ET $265.84 44 $11,696.96 $11,878.80 $-922.90
(-7.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $248.66 47 $11,687.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 10:15am ET $264.23 47 $12,418.81 $12,610.59 +$731.79
(+6.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
45m held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 3:00pm ET $269.86 46 $12,413.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 10:10am ET $284.08 46 $13,067.68 $13,264.71 +$654.12
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.2h held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 2:10pm ET $284.44 46 $13,084.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 2:20pm ET $264.23 46 $12,154.58 $12,335.05 $-929.66
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET $247.99 49 $12,151.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 10:25am ET $230.45 49 $11,291.93 $11,475.71 $-859.33
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 11:30am ET $234.71 48 $11,266.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $258.32 48 $12,399.36 $12,608.99 +$1,133.28
(+10.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
22h held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET $222.71 56 $12,471.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 10:30am ET $235.74 56 $13,201.71 $13,339.17 +$730.18
(+5.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
1h held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET $274.58 48 $13,179.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 10:05am ET $288.97 48 $13,870.40 $14,029.97 +$690.80
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 10:05am ET $279.50 50 $13,975.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 10:05am ET $279.83 50 $13,991.42 $14,046.39 +$16.42
(+0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 11:10am ET $247.70 56 $13,871.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:40am ET $263.48 56 $14,755.07 $14,930.26 +$883.87
(+6.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 10:05am ET $247.50 60 $14,850.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:40am ET $230.14 60 $13,808.40 $13,888.66 $-1,041.60
(-7.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 10:05am ET $247.50 60 $14,850.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $261.48 60 $15,688.80 $14,727.46 +$838.80
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
11d held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 11:20am ET $263.67 55 $14,502.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $242.38 55 $13,330.90 $13,556.24 $-1,171.22
(-8.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 12:05pm ET $243.66 55 $13,401.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $258.01 55 $14,190.55 $14,345.49 +$789.25
(+5.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 1:55pm ET $318.37 45 $14,326.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 1:50pm ET $334.60 45 $15,057.00 $15,075.84 +$730.35
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,075.84
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,075.84
Total Return: +50.76%
Back to Reversion