Compendium › Reversion › COIN
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
COIN
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 16 trades in period

+17.34%
Last 3 Months Return
$9,731.00
Current Value
63%
Win Rate
$8,292.84
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:57:27

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
13.1 oversold
20d Trend
-42.6%
5d Trend
-24.4%
EMA20 Dist
-25.8%
ATR%
6.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

14
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
8.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 13.9/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 13.8

30-Day Momentum

35
+8.8%
30d Return
71%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 44.4 Conf: 0.78×
Accelerating (+21 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,292.84
Current Value
$9,731.00
Period P&L
$1,438.14
Max Drawdown
-28.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.20

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
16
Winners / Losers
10 / 6
Best Trade
+8.20%
Worst Trade
-7.73%
Avg Trade Return
+1.18%
Avg Hold Time
5.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$274,852.64
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,438.14
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,438.14
Gross Return
+17.34%
Net Return (after fees)
+17.34%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 COIN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 16 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $8,292.84 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 9:40am ET $156.40 53 $8,288.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET $144.30 53 $7,647.90 $7,651.80 $-641.04
(-7.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 2:25pm ET $147.28 51 $7,511.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 10:05am ET $156.08 51 $7,960.16 $8,100.69 +$448.88
(+6.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $161.28 50 $8,064.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 12:10pm ET $169.73 50 $8,486.50 $8,523.19 +$422.50
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.7h held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 2:50pm ET $164.31 51 $8,379.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 2:50pm ET $157.67 51 $8,041.17 $8,184.55 $-338.64
(-4.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 2:50pm ET $160.71 50 $8,035.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET $173.90 50 $8,695.00 $8,843.80 +$659.25
(+8.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18.7h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET $173.60 50 $8,680.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 10:40am ET $160.94 50 $8,047.00 $8,210.80 $-633.00
(-7.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 2:50pm ET $164.31 51 $8,379.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $161.88 51 $8,255.88 $8,086.87 $-123.93
(-1.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
22.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:35am ET $146.82 55 $8,074.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 10:35am ET $154.19 55 $8,480.45 $8,492.50 +$405.63
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7d held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 2:15pm ET $148.56 57 $8,467.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 10:40am ET $156.45 57 $8,917.64 $8,942.22 +$449.72
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 2:10pm ET $185.63 48 $8,910.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 2:10pm ET $187.07 48 $8,979.36 $9,011.34 +$69.12
(+0.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 2:40pm ET $175.26 51 $8,938.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $185.08 51 $9,439.08 $9,512.42 +$501.07
(+5.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $184.35 51 $9,402.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $170.81 51 $8,711.21 $8,821.52 $-690.90
(-7.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 11:50am ET $177.69 49 $8,707.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $188.03 49 $9,213.47 $9,327.98 +$506.46
(+5.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $183.85 50 $9,192.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 2:45pm ET $170.90 50 $8,544.75 $8,680.23 $-647.75
(-7.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $162.58 53 $8,616.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 10:25am ET $170.88 53 $9,056.51 $9,120.00 +$439.77
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
19.5h held
16 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 3:55pm ET $192.73 47 $9,058.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $205.73 47 $9,669.31 $9,731.00 +$611.00
(+6.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.7d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,731.00
Net Profit/Loss: $-269.00
Total Return: -2.69%
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