Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:54:04

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
43.2 neutral
20d Trend
-4.5%
5d Trend
-4.7%
EMA20 Dist
-2.7%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
74%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

42
Lifetime
Confidence: 92%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
14.4/35
Total Return
11.1/25
Win Rate
11.7/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
7.7/10
Raw Quality 46.2/100
× Confidence 0.92 = 42.4

30-Day Momentum

46
+9.9%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
4.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 69.9 Conf: 0.66×
Steady (+4 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (92%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$15,121.63
Current Value
$12,054.50
Period P&L
$-3,067.14
Max Drawdown
-3.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.34

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
5 / 5
Best Trade
+5.52%
Worst Trade
-9.73%
Avg Trade Return
-1.91%
Avg Hold Time
10.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$248,524.99
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-3,067.14
Net P&L (after fees)
$-3,067.14
Gross Return
-20.28%
Net Return (after fees)
-20.28%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 GOOGL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $15,121.63 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 12:40pm ET $348.79 43 $14,997.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $361.50 43 $15,544.50 $15,668.17 +$546.53
(+3.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
11.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 2:35pm ET $368.70 42 $15,485.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:40am ET $341.74 42 $14,353.08 $14,535.64 $-1,132.53
(-7.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 12:10pm ET $355.49 40 $14,219.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $321.29 40 $12,851.60 $13,167.44 $-1,368.20
(-9.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 2:35pm ET $368.70 42 $15,485.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $332.84 42 $13,979.28 $11,661.11 $-1,506.33
(-9.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $368.05 31 $11,409.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 10:05am ET $342.27 31 $10,610.37 $10,861.77 $-799.34
(-7.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
6 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 11:30am ET $344.38 31 $10,675.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $347.78 31 $10,781.18 $10,967.31 +$105.54
(+1.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 11:30am ET $344.38 31 $10,675.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $346.58 31 $10,743.98 $11,035.65 +$68.34
(+0.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
12.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $340.12 32 $10,883.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $335.79 32 $10,745.28 $10,897.09 $-138.56
(-1.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET $331.05 32 $10,593.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 12:55pm ET $347.61 32 $11,123.68 $11,427.33 +$530.24
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 1:55pm ET $344.51 33 $11,368.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 9:45am ET $363.51 33 $11,995.98 $12,054.50 +$627.17
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,054.50
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,054.50
Total Return: +20.54%
Back to Reversion