Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:08:27

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
13.3 oversold
20d Trend
-41.6%
5d Trend
-28.6%
EMA20 Dist
-26.6%
ATR%
7.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

11
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality 11.6/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 11.3

30-Day Momentum

3
-1.0%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.2 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-8 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$6,212.18
Current Value
$5,767.99
Period P&L
$-444.19
Max Drawdown
-28.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.02

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
9 / 5
Best Trade
+9.02%
Worst Trade
-23.41%
Avg Trade Return
+0.14%
Avg Hold Time
5.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$176,204.93
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-444.19
Net P&L (after fees)
$-444.19
Gross Return
-7.15%
Net Return (after fees)
-7.15%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 HOOD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $6,212.18 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 2:40pm ET $93.71 66 $6,184.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 3:50pm ET $98.90 66 $6,527.40 $6,554.72 +$342.54
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 9:35am ET $101.14 64 $6,472.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 11:00am ET $107.56 64 $6,883.84 $6,965.59 +$410.87
(+6.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 12:30pm ET $111.34 62 $6,903.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 11:40am ET $117.37 62 $7,276.94 $7,339.45 +$373.86
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 2:50pm ET $113.99 64 $7,295.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 3:35pm ET $105.93 64 $6,779.84 $6,823.93 $-515.52
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 3:55pm ET $99.97 68 $6,797.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET $105.43 68 $7,168.90 $7,194.87 +$370.94
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.7d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 9:35am ET $105.61 68 $7,181.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 9:30am ET $97.53 68 $6,632.04 $6,645.77 $-549.10
(-7.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 2:50pm ET $113.99 64 $7,295.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $87.31 64 $5,587.84 $4,938.25 $-1,707.52
(-23.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET $84.67 58 $4,910.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 10:00am ET $89.71 58 $5,203.18 $5,230.57 +$292.32
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 2:40pm ET $92.20 56 $5,163.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET $96.98 56 $5,431.08 $5,498.47 +$267.90
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.8d held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2026 9:30am ET $97.85 56 $5,479.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 9:40am ET $103.69 56 $5,806.64 $5,825.51 +$327.04
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:40am ET $104.74 55 $5,760.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 10:35am ET $110.26 55 $6,064.43 $6,129.52 +$304.01
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:35am ET $107.72 56 $6,032.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $117.44 56 $6,576.64 $6,673.56 +$544.04
(+9.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $121.00 55 $6,655.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $112.50 55 $6,187.50 $6,206.06 $-467.50
(-7.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 9:35am ET $112.58 55 $6,192.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 12:10pm ET $104.62 55 $5,754.10 $5,767.99 $-438.07
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $5,767.99
Net Profit/Loss: $-4,232.01
Total Return: -42.32%
Back to Reversion