Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:08:16

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

10
Lifetime
Confidence: 86%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.2/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 11.2/100
× Confidence 0.86 = 9.6

30-Day Momentum

5
+0.3%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 7.9 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (86%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,139.14
Current Value
$7,534.84
Period P&L
$-1,604.31
Max Drawdown
-5.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.14

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
11
Winners / Losers
7 / 4
Best Trade
+7.71%
Worst Trade
-24.83%
Avg Trade Return
-1.21%
Avg Hold Time
6.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$175,409.45
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,604.31
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,604.31
Gross Return
-17.55%
Net Return (after fees)
-17.55%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 11 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,139.14 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 9:40am ET $257.99 34 $8,771.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 11:30am ET $271.80 34 $9,241.20 $9,470.31 +$469.54
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 3:50pm ET $276.74 34 $9,409.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 11:10am ET $290.89 34 $9,890.39 $9,951.54 +$481.23
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 3:10pm ET $309.34 32 $9,898.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $285.37 32 $9,131.76 $9,184.42 $-767.12
(-7.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 12:00pm ET $289.82 31 $8,984.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $217.85 31 $6,753.35 $6,953.51 $-2,230.91
(-24.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 12:20pm ET $213.32 32 $6,826.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET $218.80 32 $7,001.60 $7,128.71 +$175.20
(+2.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
11.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 3:05pm ET $227.20 31 $7,043.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 1:40pm ET $238.56 31 $7,395.36 $7,480.87 +$352.16
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 9:30am ET $234.60 31 $7,272.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET $235.50 31 $7,300.50 $7,508.92 +$28.05
(+0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 9:30am ET $233.41 32 $7,469.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $232.90 32 $7,452.80 $7,492.60 $-16.32
(-0.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 9:30am ET $233.41 32 $7,469.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET $234.68 32 $7,509.76 $7,533.24 +$40.64
(+0.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
13.1d held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $231.72 32 $7,415.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $249.58 32 $7,986.56 $8,104.76 +$571.52
(+7.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $246.20 32 $7,878.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 11:25am ET $228.39 32 $7,308.48 $7,534.84 $-569.92
(-7.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,534.84
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,465.16
Total Return: -24.65%
Back to Reversion