Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:05:39

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33 neutral
20d Trend
-14.2%
5d Trend
-15.0%
EMA20 Dist
-11.4%
ATR%
6.1%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

10
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 10.5/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 10.3

30-Day Momentum

1
-16.5%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-9 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,063
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$7,059.96
Current Value
$4,322.95
Period P&L
$-2,737.01
Max Drawdown
-26.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.39

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
18
Winners / Losers
7 / 11
Best Trade
+6.21%
Worst Trade
-9.36%
Avg Trade Return
-2.57%
Avg Hold Time
2.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$218,179.79
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,737.01
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,737.01
Gross Return
-38.77%
Net Return (after fees)
-38.77%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LCID Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 18 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $7,059.96 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 2:00pm ET $5.32 1,349 $7,176.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 2:05pm ET $5.59 1,349 $7,535.92 $7,536.43 +$359.24
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 2:35pm ET $6.72 1,121 $7,533.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 10:35am ET $6.18 1,121 $6,933.38 $6,936.58 $-599.85
(-8.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20h held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $6.39 1,085 $6,933.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $5.91 1,085 $6,412.35 $6,415.78 $-520.80
(-7.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:35am ET $5.67 1,130 $6,411.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 12:50pm ET $5.97 1,130 $6,746.10 $6,750.26 +$334.48
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 1:15pm ET $5.66 1,191 $6,747.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 12:45pm ET $5.14 1,191 $6,115.79 $6,119.03 $-631.23
(-9.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 12:55pm ET $6.54 935 $6,114.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 2:05pm ET $6.07 935 $5,675.54 $5,679.67 $-439.36
(-7.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 10:30am ET $7.27 781 $5,677.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 9:50am ET $7.72 781 $6,029.40 $6,031.98 +$352.31
(+6.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 10:55am ET $6.26 963 $6,028.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 9:45am ET $6.64 963 $6,389.51 $6,393.11 +$361.13
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 11:40am ET $6.38 1,002 $6,392.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 10:05am ET $6.72 1,002 $6,728.43 $6,728.78 +$335.67
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET $7.72 871 $6,725.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 3:35pm ET $8.19 871 $7,129.14 $7,132.40 +$403.62
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.1h held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $7.62 936 $7,132.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET $6.94 936 $6,495.84 $6,495.92 $-636.48
(-8.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 2:55pm ET $6.90 941 $6,490.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 11:05am ET $6.38 941 $6,003.58 $6,009.33 $-486.59
(-7.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 2:00pm ET $6.37 943 $6,007.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 11:05am ET $5.91 943 $5,568.42 $5,570.46 $-438.87
(-7.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 11:50am ET $5.70 977 $5,568.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 11:30am ET $5.30 977 $5,173.22 $5,174.78 $-395.68
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET $5.13 1,008 $5,171.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $4.72 1,008 $4,752.72 $4,756.46 $-418.32
(-8.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
16 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET $4.53 1,051 $4,755.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 1:55pm ET $4.76 1,051 $5,002.76 $5,003.45 +$246.99
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.4h held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 3:45pm ET $4.57 1,093 $5,000.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 2:35pm ET $4.25 1,093 $4,647.87 $4,650.85 $-352.60
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 1:40pm ET $4.26 1,093 $4,650.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:20pm ET $3.95 1,093 $4,322.81 $4,322.95 $-327.90
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $4,322.95
Net Profit/Loss: $-5,677.05
Total Return: -56.77%
Back to Reversion