Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 02:26:38

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
49.4 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
+1.5%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
2.3%
Range Pos
39%
Bounce Ratio
2.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

23
Lifetime
Confidence: 77%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
7.5/35
Total Return
8.9/25
Win Rate
5.1/15
Profit Factor
2.2/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality 29.7/100
× Confidence 0.77 = 23.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (77%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,510.18
Current Value
$11,076.54
Period P&L
$1,566.36
Max Drawdown
-2.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.77

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
5 / 3
Best Trade
+5.34%
Worst Trade
-1.63%
Avg Trade Return
+2.20%
Avg Hold Time
8.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$168,171.18
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,566.36
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,566.36
Gross Return
+16.47%
Net Return (after fees)
+16.47%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,510.18 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 2:45pm ET $487.45 19 $9,261.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 10:20am ET $513.47 19 $9,756.02 $9,873.74 +$494.38
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 1:35pm ET $510.08 19 $9,691.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 11:20am ET $535.97 19 $10,183.43 $10,365.65 +$491.91
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $532.22 19 $10,112.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $549.24 19 $10,435.56 $10,688.94 +$323.29
(+3.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET $540.70 19 $10,273.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 11:40am ET $567.90 19 $10,790.10 $11,205.74 +$516.80
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
9.1d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $568.53 19 $10,802.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 9:30am ET $561.59 19 $10,670.21 $11,073.88 $-131.86
(-1.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
6 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 11:55am ET $565.32 19 $10,741.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 11:55am ET $581.32 19 $11,045.08 $11,377.88 +$304.00
(+2.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 12:30pm ET $595.27 19 $11,310.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 12:30pm ET $585.57 19 $11,125.74 $11,193.58 $-184.30
(-1.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 1:40pm ET $581.32 19 $11,045.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 1:40pm ET $575.16 19 $10,928.04 $11,076.54 $-117.04
(-1.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,076.54
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,076.54
Total Return: +10.77%
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