Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:27:25

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

14
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
8.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 14.1/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 13.8

30-Day Momentum

29
+7.3%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 38.6 Conf: 0.74×
Accelerating (+15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,038.69
Current Value
$7,125.40
Period P&L
$-6,913.28
Max Drawdown
-27.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.61

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
17
Winners / Losers
5 / 12
Best Trade
+6.94%
Worst Trade
-10.24%
Avg Trade Return
-3.84%
Avg Hold Time
2.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$293,642.14
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-6,913.28
Net P&L (after fees)
$-6,913.28
Gross Return
-49.24%
Net Return (after fees)
-49.24%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 17 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $14,038.69 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 9:45am ET $14.31 1,002 $14,343.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:50am ET $13.23 1,002 $13,256.46 $13,267.15 $-1,087.17
(-7.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 2:40pm ET $14.56 910 $13,254.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 10:05am ET $13.53 910 $12,311.03 $12,324.03 $-943.12
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 12:15pm ET $13.41 919 $12,323.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 12:25pm ET $12.43 919 $11,418.58 $11,418.72 $-905.31
(-7.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $12.67 901 $11,415.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $11.73 901 $10,568.73 $10,571.78 $-846.94
(-7.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 2:00pm ET $13.18 802 $10,566.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:40am ET $12.24 802 $9,816.40 $9,821.83 $-749.95
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 10:00am ET $11.92 823 $9,810.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $10.70 823 $8,806.10 $8,817.69 $-1,004.14
(-10.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2026 1:45pm ET $12.51 705 $8,816.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 10:40am ET $11.48 705 $8,093.54 $8,095.20 $-722.48
(-8.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 1:50pm ET $11.19 723 $8,090.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 11:45am ET $10.40 723 $7,519.20 $7,524.03 $-571.17
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.9h held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:50am ET $11.57 650 $7,523.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 9:35am ET $10.45 650 $6,792.50 $6,792.78 $-731.25
(-9.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 9:45am ET $9.73 697 $6,785.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 9:30am ET $9.01 697 $6,279.97 $6,287.46 $-505.32
(-7.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 9:45am ET $9.24 680 $6,283.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 11:45am ET $9.76 680 $6,636.80 $6,641.06 +$353.60
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 3:40pm ET $11.16 595 $6,640.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 10:30am ET $11.85 595 $7,050.75 $7,051.61 +$410.55
(+6.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
18.8h held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 3:35pm ET $11.91 592 $7,050.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 10:10am ET $10.99 592 $6,506.08 $6,507.03 $-544.58
(-7.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.6h held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $10.45 622 $6,499.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 10:15am ET $11.18 622 $6,950.85 $6,957.98 +$450.95
(+6.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 3:40pm ET $11.24 618 $6,949.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 11:15am ET $11.82 618 $7,307.85 $7,316.42 +$358.44
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
16 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 3:35pm ET $11.83 618 $7,310.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 2:50pm ET $10.97 618 $6,776.37 $6,781.85 $-534.57
(-7.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $10.94 619 $6,771.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:35am ET $11.49 619 $7,115.40 $7,125.40 +$343.55
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
18.7h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,125.40
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,874.60
Total Return: -28.75%
Back to Reversion