Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:21:05

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

36
Lifetime
Confidence: 79%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
18.1/35
Total Return
11.9/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
2.7/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality 45.4/100
× Confidence 0.79 = 35.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (79%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,317.97
Current Value
$12,400.87
Period P&L
$3,082.89
Max Drawdown
-4.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.58

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
6 / 4
Best Trade
+11.09%
Worst Trade
-3.87%
Avg Trade Return
+2.74%
Avg Hold Time
7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$228,014.62
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,082.89
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,082.89
Gross Return
+33.09%
Net Return (after fees)
+33.09%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,317.97 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 9:30am ET $371.55 25 $9,288.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 12:15pm ET $390.17 25 $9,754.13 $10,073.10 +$465.25
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $383.75 26 $9,977.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 12:45pm ET $403.49 26 $10,490.74 $10,586.34 +$513.24
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 3:55pm ET $393.77 26 $10,238.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 3:55pm ET $389.13 26 $10,117.38 $10,465.70 $-120.64
(-1.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 12:10pm ET $393.27 26 $10,225.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET $436.88 26 $11,358.75 $11,599.43 +$1,133.73
(+11.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $450.00 25 $11,250.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET $476.93 25 $11,923.25 $12,272.68 +$673.25
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
6 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $481.45 25 $12,036.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 9:50am ET $506.69 25 $12,667.25 $12,903.68 +$631.00
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 9:50am ET $500.83 25 $12,520.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 9:50am ET $481.45 25 $12,036.37 $12,419.31 $-484.38
(-3.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 1:00pm ET $487.94 25 $12,198.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 10:50am ET $513.28 25 $12,831.88 $13,052.69 +$633.38
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 2:35pm ET $509.88 25 $12,747.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 2:35pm ET $491.07 25 $12,276.63 $12,582.32 $-470.37
(-3.7%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 3:55pm ET $505.37 24 $12,128.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 3:55pm ET $497.81 24 $11,947.44 $12,400.87 $-181.45
(-1.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,400.87
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,400.87
Total Return: +24.01%
Back to Reversion