Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:14:30

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

37
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
8.4/35
Total Return
12.4/25
Win Rate
10.3/15
Profit Factor
0.7/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality 37.7/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 36.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$20,548.73
Current Value
$12,986.72
Period P&L
$-7,562.02
Max Drawdown
-12.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.15

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
18
Winners / Losers
8 / 10
Best Trade
+19.15%
Worst Trade
-10.02%
Avg Trade Return
-1.26%
Avg Hold Time
3.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$526,403.94
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-7,562.02
Net P&L (after fees)
$-7,562.02
Gross Return
-36.80%
Net Return (after fees)
-36.80%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 18 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $20,548.73 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 11:25am ET $1,030.73 16 $16,491.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET $1,228.15 16 $19,650.32 $20,192.01 +$3,158.64
(+19.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.1h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET $1,136.76 17 $19,324.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 10:05am ET $1,053.29 17 $17,905.85 $18,772.94 $-1,419.07
(-7.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 2:10pm ET $1,146.35 16 $18,341.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 10:30am ET $1,065.50 16 $17,048.00 $17,479.34 $-1,293.60
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 10:30am ET $1,007.27 17 $17,123.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $917.57 17 $15,598.69 $15,954.44 $-1,524.90
(-8.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 2:40pm ET $1,012.39 15 $15,185.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET $916.62 15 $13,749.31 $14,517.90 $-1,436.54
(-9.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 2:25pm ET $982.35 14 $13,752.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 10:35am ET $908.14 14 $12,713.96 $13,478.96 $-1,038.94
(-7.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 1:15pm ET $845.17 15 $12,677.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 12:05pm ET $887.85 15 $13,317.75 $14,119.16 +$640.20
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 2:15pm ET $881.22 16 $14,099.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET $931.08 16 $14,897.20 $14,916.85 +$797.68
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.3h held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET $951.42 15 $14,271.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 10:25am ET $999.00 15 $14,985.00 $15,630.55 +$713.70
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 2:10pm ET $924.12 16 $14,785.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 10:40am ET $859.35 16 $13,749.60 $14,594.23 $-1,036.32
(-7.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 1:40pm ET $812.41 17 $13,810.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 3:35pm ET $751.60 17 $12,777.20 $13,560.46 $-1,033.77
(-7.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET $830.92 16 $13,294.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 9:35am ET $873.93 16 $13,982.88 $14,248.62 +$688.16
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 3:45pm ET $909.60 15 $13,644.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET $841.43 15 $12,621.45 $13,226.07 $-1,022.55
(-7.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 9:40am ET $878.97 15 $13,184.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 9:50am ET $927.25 15 $13,908.75 $13,950.27 +$724.20
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 3:30pm ET $956.33 14 $13,388.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 9:35am ET $1,010.48 14 $14,146.72 $14,708.33 +$758.06
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 9:35am ET $974.00 15 $14,610.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:40am ET $902.50 15 $13,537.50 $13,635.82 $-1,072.51
(-7.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $934.54 14 $13,083.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:35am ET $989.50 14 $13,852.94 $14,405.20 +$769.38
(+5.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.7d held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 3:05pm ET $1,011.00 14 $14,154.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $909.68 14 $12,735.52 $12,986.72 $-1,418.48
(-10.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,986.72
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,986.72
Total Return: +29.87%
Back to Reversion