Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 19:08:11

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.2 neutral
20d Trend
-10.9%
5d Trend
-5.8%
EMA20 Dist
-5.4%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 88%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
2.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.6/10
Raw Quality 5.7/100
× Confidence 0.88 = 5.0

30-Day Momentum

3
-4.1%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.2 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (88%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$6,826.32
Current Value
$7,100.95
Period P&L
$274.63
Max Drawdown
-10.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
6 / 4
Best Trade
+5.26%
Worst Trade
-8.49%
Avg Trade Return
+0.53%
Avg Hold Time
9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$144,538.71
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$274.63
Net P&L (after fees)
$274.63
Gross Return
+4.02%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.02%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NFLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $6,826.32 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 9:50am ET $72.53 94 $6,817.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 10:15am ET $76.35 94 $7,176.62 $7,185.12 +$358.80
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
8d held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 1:50pm ET $76.14 94 $7,156.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 1:50pm ET $73.98 94 $6,954.12 $6,982.55 $-202.57
(-2.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET $67.34 103 $6,936.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 10:35am ET $70.73 103 $7,285.19 $7,331.72 +$349.17
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 1:50pm ET $76.14 94 $7,156.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $71.21 94 $6,694.21 $6,869.24 $-462.48
(-6.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
23.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:35am ET $72.14 95 $6,853.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 9:35am ET $74.08 95 $7,037.60 $7,053.63 +$184.39
(+2.7%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
6 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 3:00pm ET $74.58 94 $7,010.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $78.32 94 $7,362.08 $7,405.19 +$351.56
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 9:40am ET $77.79 95 $7,389.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 11:30am ET $81.71 95 $7,762.92 $7,778.54 +$373.35
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 3:50pm ET $81.65 95 $7,756.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $77.47 95 $7,359.65 $7,381.44 $-397.10
(-5.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
12.7d held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET $76.45 96 $7,339.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 11:10am ET $80.35 96 $7,713.60 $7,755.84 +$374.40
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 3:40pm ET $77.93 99 $7,715.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $71.32 99 $7,060.67 $7,100.95 $-654.89
(-8.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,100.95
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,899.05
Total Return: -28.99%
Back to Reversion