Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:19:17

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.5/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 12.1/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 11.9

30-Day Momentum

0
-26.9%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-12 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$-3.59
Current Value
$5,949.37
Period P&L
$-1,822.97
Max Drawdown
-27.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.34

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
5 / 5
Best Trade
+5.92%
Worst Trade
-15.65%
Avg Trade Return
-2.23%
Avg Hold Time
10d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$152,820.35
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,822.97
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,822.97
Gross Return
+0.00%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.00%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $-3.59 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 9:30am ET $4.98 1,563 $7,783.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET $4.93 1,563 $7,705.59 $7,709.82 $-78.15
(-1.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 9:30am ET $4.98 1,563 $7,783.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $4.99 1,563 $7,791.56 $7,717.64 +$7.82
(+0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
19d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 3:00pm ET $4.90 1,575 $7,714.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $5.14 1,575 $8,103.37 $8,106.35 +$388.71
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 12:00pm ET $5.06 1,602 $8,106.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 9:40am ET $4.70 1,602 $7,526.52 $7,526.75 $-579.60
(-7.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 9:55am ET $4.64 1,620 $7,524.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 9:35am ET $4.92 1,620 $7,970.40 $7,972.25 +$445.50
(+5.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $4.68 1,701 $7,969.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 9:30am ET $4.78 1,701 $8,129.59 $8,132.65 +$160.40
(+2.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
11d held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 9:30am ET $4.59 1,769 $8,128.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 9:30am ET $4.60 1,769 $8,139.17 $8,143.26 +$10.61
(+0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $4.51 1,807 $8,140.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $4.05 1,807 $7,309.32 $7,312.04 $-831.22
(-10.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $4.51 1,807 $8,140.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET $3.80 1,807 $6,866.42 $6,037.92 $-1,274.12
(-15.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10.1d held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $3.75 1,610 $6,037.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $3.69 1,610 $5,948.95 $5,949.37 $-88.55
(-1.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $5,949.37
Net Profit/Loss: $-4,050.63
Total Return: -40.51%
Back to Reversion