Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 01:45:24

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

19
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.8/35
Total Return
6.0/25
Win Rate
7.7/15
Profit Factor
0.2/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality 19.3/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 19.0

30-Day Momentum

22
+4.6%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 33.5 Conf: 0.66×
Steady (+3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$-336.65
Current Value
$10,434.15
Period P&L
$1,017.34
Max Drawdown
-18.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.05

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
12
Winners / Losers
7 / 5
Best Trade
+5.49%
Worst Trade
-8.05%
Avg Trade Return
+0.28%
Avg Hold Time
7.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$233,119.37
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,017.34
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,017.34
Gross Return
+0.00%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.00%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 12 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $-336.65 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 3:30pm ET $208.08 49 $10,195.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET $192.38 49 $9,426.86 $9,532.69 $-769.06
(-7.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 3:30pm ET $208.08 49 $10,195.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $194.48 49 $9,529.52 $8,866.29 $-666.40
(-6.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
13.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $192.15 46 $8,838.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 1:25pm ET $202.69 46 $9,323.76 $9,351.15 +$484.86
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET $202.04 46 $9,293.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 2:30pm ET $212.29 46 $9,765.11 $9,822.42 +$471.27
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET $209.40 46 $9,632.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET $205.73 46 $9,463.58 $9,653.60 $-168.82
(-1.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
11d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET $202.04 46 $9,293.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $192.21 46 $8,841.89 $9,201.65 $-451.95
(-4.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 3:40pm ET $207.19 44 $9,116.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 9:35am ET $218.27 44 $9,603.88 $9,689.17 +$487.52
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.7d held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 3:50pm ET $219.02 44 $9,636.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET $225.46 44 $9,920.24 $9,972.53 +$283.36
(+2.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10.7d held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $220.55 45 $9,924.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET $227.37 45 $10,231.43 $10,278.98 +$306.45
(+3.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 2:25pm ET $218.97 46 $10,072.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 1:45pm ET $229.93 46 $10,576.78 $10,783.14 +$504.16
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 3:30pm ET $229.69 46 $10,565.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $211.20 46 $9,715.20 $9,932.75 $-850.39
(-8.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.8d held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 1:05pm ET $211.44 46 $9,726.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 3:55pm ET $222.34 46 $10,227.64 $10,434.15 +$501.40
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,434.15
Net Profit/Loss: +$434.15
Total Return: +4.34%
Back to Reversion