Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:00:03

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
15.8 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-19.1%
EMA20 Dist
-19.9%
ATR%
6.9%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

11
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 10.8/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 10.8

30-Day Momentum

46
+16.0%
30d Return
80%
Win Rate
5
Trades
2.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 65.1 Conf: 0.70×
Accelerating (+35 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$6,339.25
Current Value
$4,404.56
Period P&L
$-1,934.69
Max Drawdown
-21.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.37

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
6 / 9
Best Trade
+6.51%
Worst Trade
-12.75%
Avg Trade Return
-2.45%
Avg Hold Time
5.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$146,893.19
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,934.69
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,934.69
Gross Return
-30.52%
Net Return (after fees)
-30.52%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ORCL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $6,339.25 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 1:50pm ET $167.15 40 $6,686.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:40am ET $154.14 40 $6,165.60 $6,261.25 $-520.60
(-7.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 9:50am ET $150.71 41 $6,179.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:50am ET $143.11 41 $5,867.51 $5,949.65 $-311.60
(-5.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:10am ET $141.28 42 $5,933.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $130.69 42 $5,488.98 $5,504.87 $-444.78
(-7.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 2:55pm ET $132.08 41 $5,415.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:40am ET $122.46 41 $5,020.86 $5,110.45 $-394.42
(-7.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:40am ET $124.48 41 $5,103.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 3:10pm ET $115.51 41 $4,736.11 $4,742.88 $-367.57
(-7.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET $116.26 40 $4,650.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 3:00pm ET $122.27 40 $4,890.74 $4,983.22 +$240.34
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.5h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:10am ET $141.28 42 $5,933.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $123.26 42 $5,176.92 $4,226.38 $-756.84
(-12.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23d held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 3:30pm ET $146.13 28 $4,091.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 2:25pm ET $153.44 28 $4,296.32 $4,431.06 +$204.68
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
8d held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2026 9:35am ET $154.15 28 $4,316.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 10:45am ET $142.80 28 $3,998.54 $4,113.54 $-317.52
(-7.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $142.88 28 $4,000.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET $150.95 28 $4,226.60 $4,339.36 +$225.82
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $149.35 29 $4,331.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $159.08 29 $4,613.32 $4,621.53 +$282.17
(+6.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 2:40pm ET $161.64 28 $4,525.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 3:50pm ET $150.32 28 $4,208.85 $4,304.46 $-317.07
(-7.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:40am ET $142.49 30 $4,274.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 10:15am ET $149.93 30 $4,498.05 $4,527.66 +$223.20
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 12:25pm ET $144.95 31 $4,493.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 9:35am ET $152.86 31 $4,738.66 $4,772.87 +$245.21
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 9:35am ET $146.85 32 $4,699.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:50am ET $135.34 32 $4,330.89 $4,404.56 $-368.31
(-7.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $4,404.56
Net Profit/Loss: $-5,595.44
Total Return: -55.95%
Back to Reversion