Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:11:24

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
18.4 oversold
20d Trend
-19.1%
5d Trend
-12.6%
EMA20 Dist
-11.6%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

52
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
21.4/35
Total Return
14.9/25
Win Rate
9.0/15
Profit Factor
3.4/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 55.1/100
× Confidence 0.95 = 52.2

30-Day Momentum

24
+6.0%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 36.0 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-28 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$357.04
Current Value
$16,157.79
Period P&L
$1,730.39
Max Drawdown
-10.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.20

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
13
Winners / Losers
8 / 5
Best Trade
+19.48%
Worst Trade
-9.23%
Avg Trade Return
+1.56%
Avg Hold Time
8.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$408,251.40
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,730.39
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,730.39
Gross Return
+484.65%
Net Return (after fees)
+484.65%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PANW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 13 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $357.04 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 2:35pm ET $282.89 49 $13,861.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 2:35pm ET $293.66 49 $14,389.34 $14,537.89 +$527.49
(+3.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 2:50pm ET $297.32 48 $14,271.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 9:35am ET $316.31 48 $15,182.88 $15,449.65 +$911.76
(+6.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 2:35pm ET $282.89 49 $13,861.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $337.99 49 $16,561.51 $18,149.31 +$2,699.66
(+19.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:55am ET $346.62 52 $18,024.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 10:15am ET $321.11 52 $16,697.72 $16,822.79 $-1,326.52
(-7.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:25am ET $332.49 50 $16,624.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 10:35am ET $349.66 50 $17,483.00 $17,681.04 +$858.25
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 9:35am ET $351.71 50 $17,585.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:40am ET $324.72 50 $16,235.80 $16,331.34 $-1,349.70
(-7.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:25am ET $332.49 50 $16,624.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $318.50 50 $15,925.00 $15,631.59 $-699.75
(-4.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 3:25pm ET $363.82 42 $15,280.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 11:50am ET $382.39 42 $16,060.38 $16,411.53 +$779.94
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 2:25pm ET $381.26 43 $16,394.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 10:10am ET $353.99 43 $15,221.57 $15,238.92 $-1,172.61
(-7.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.8d held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 11:20am ET $351.76 43 $15,125.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:40am ET $369.96 43 $15,908.28 $16,021.52 +$782.60
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 9:40am ET $368.73 43 $15,855.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET $334.69 43 $14,391.67 $14,557.59 $-1,463.93
(-9.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 3:50pm ET $328.24 44 $14,442.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $346.24 44 $15,234.65 $15,349.68 +$792.09
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
10.7d held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $368.28 41 $15,099.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 11:05am ET $387.99 41 $15,907.59 $16,157.79 +$808.11
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,157.79
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,157.79
Total Return: +61.58%
Back to Reversion