ARM Reversion's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 44 trades in period
+29.28%
Last 6 Months Return
$15,075.84
Current Value
64%
Win Rate
$11,661.74
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
46.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+2.4%
EMA20 Dist
-0.9%
ATR%
6.3%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
36
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
6.8/35
Total Return
14.2/25
Win Rate
8.9/15
Profit Factor
1.3/15
Consistency
5.3/10
Raw Quality
36.5/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 36.3
30-Day Momentum
28
+7.3%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 37.7
Conf: 0.74×
Cooling (-8 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$11,661.74
Current Value
$15,075.84
Period P&L
$3,414.10
Max Drawdown
-26.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.12
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
44
Winners / Losers
28 /
16
Best Trade
+10.06%
Worst Trade
-12.05%
Avg Trade Return
+0.83%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,201,762.34
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,414.10
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,414.10
Gross Return
+29.28%
Net Return (after fees)
+29.28%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ARM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 44 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $11,661.74 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:35am ET | $135.65 | 85 | $11,530.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $148.35 | 85 | $12,610.17 | $12,625.21 |
+$1,079.50 (+9.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 12:30pm ET | $156.89 | 80 | $12,551.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:45am ET | $145.77 | 80 | $11,661.60 | $11,735.61 |
$-889.60 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:50am ET | $141.05 | 83 | $11,707.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 12:50pm ET | $148.77 | 83 | $12,347.91 | $12,376.37 |
+$640.76 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:15pm ET | $153.70 | 80 | $12,296.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $141.91 | 80 | $11,353.20 | $11,433.57 |
$-942.80 (-7.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 3:00pm ET | $148.07 | 77 | $11,401.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $156.46 | 77 | $12,047.42 | $12,079.60 |
+$646.03 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:15pm ET | $160.14 | 75 | $12,010.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 11:15am ET | $169.03 | 75 | $12,677.25 | $12,746.35 |
+$666.75 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 1:20pm ET | $173.63 | 73 | $12,674.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:45am ET | $183.20 | 73 | $13,373.60 | $13,444.96 |
+$698.61 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.4h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $224.49 | 59 | $13,244.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $201.41 | 59 | $11,883.30 | $12,083.35 |
$-1,361.61 (-10.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $196.07 | 61 | $11,960.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:45am ET | $206.13 | 61 | $12,574.03 | $12,697.11 |
+$613.76 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 2:35pm ET | $212.91 | 59 | $12,561.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $228.92 | 59 | $13,506.13 | $13,641.55 |
+$944.44 (+7.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $222.65 | 61 | $13,581.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $206.54 | 61 | $12,598.64 | $12,658.84 |
$-982.71 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $211.48 | 59 | $12,477.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 2:40pm ET | $222.07 | 59 | $13,101.84 | $13,283.65 |
+$624.81 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $212.00 | 62 | $13,143.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 1:15pm ET | $223.50 | 62 | $13,857.00 | $13,996.71 |
+$713.06 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 3:25pm ET | $303.75 | 46 | $13,972.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 12:05pm ET | $319.29 | 46 | $14,687.46 | $14,711.67 |
+$714.96 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $302.52 | 48 | $14,521.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $317.99 | 48 | $15,263.52 | $15,454.11 |
+$742.44 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.6h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $401.13 | 38 | $15,242.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 11:35am ET | $423.36 | 38 | $16,087.82 | $16,298.99 |
+$844.88 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 12:20pm ET | $394.01 | 41 | $16,154.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 2:20pm ET | $414.04 | 41 | $16,975.64 | $17,120.22 |
+$821.23 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $368.80 | 46 | $16,965.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 2:10pm ET | $342.34 | 46 | $15,747.64 | $15,902.83 |
$-1,217.39 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.7h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 3:10pm ET | $346.95 | 45 | $15,612.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 11:25am ET | $321.14 | 45 | $14,451.30 | $14,741.38 |
$-1,161.45 (-7.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 3:15pm ET | $304.96 | 48 | $14,638.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $321.70 | 48 | $15,441.60 | $15,544.90 |
+$803.52 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $372.23 | 41 | $15,261.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 10:35am ET | $393.37 | 41 | $16,128.17 | $16,411.44 |
+$866.54 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET | $420.08 | 39 | $16,383.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 2:45pm ET | $442.00 | 39 | $17,238.00 | $17,266.32 |
+$854.88 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
40m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $419.52 | 41 | $17,200.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $368.96 | 41 | $15,127.56 | $15,193.57 |
$-2,072.75 (-12.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $361.16 | 42 | $15,168.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $332.77 | 42 | $13,976.34 | $14,001.28 |
$-1,192.29 (-7.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $324.53 | 43 | $13,954.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 12:50pm ET | $341.85 | 43 | $14,699.55 | $14,746.04 |
+$744.76 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 3:30pm ET | $355.58 | 41 | $14,578.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 10:40am ET | $329.52 | 41 | $13,510.32 | $13,677.79 |
$-1,068.26 (-7.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 1:45pm ET | $322.13 | 42 | $13,529.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 10:45am ET | $298.16 | 42 | $12,522.85 | $12,671.18 |
$-1,006.61 (-7.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 11:10am ET | $298.40 | 42 | $12,533.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $325.53 | 42 | $13,672.26 | $13,810.43 |
+$1,139.25 (+9.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $324.03 | 42 | $13,609.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $300.01 | 42 | $12,600.53 | $12,801.70 |
$-1,008.73 (-7.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $286.82 | 44 | $12,619.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 12:35pm ET | $265.84 | 44 | $11,696.96 | $11,878.80 |
$-922.90 (-7.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $248.66 | 47 | $11,687.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 10:15am ET | $264.23 | 47 | $12,418.81 | $12,610.59 |
+$731.79 (+6.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 3:00pm ET | $269.86 | 46 | $12,413.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 10:10am ET | $284.08 | 46 | $13,067.68 | $13,264.71 |
+$654.12 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.2h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 2:10pm ET | $284.44 | 46 | $13,084.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 2:20pm ET | $264.23 | 46 | $12,154.58 | $12,335.05 |
$-929.66 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $247.99 | 49 | $12,151.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 10:25am ET | $230.45 | 49 | $11,291.93 | $11,475.71 |
$-859.33 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 11:30am ET | $234.71 | 48 | $11,266.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $258.32 | 48 | $12,399.36 | $12,608.99 |
+$1,133.28 (+10.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $222.71 | 56 | $12,471.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 10:30am ET | $235.74 | 56 | $13,201.71 | $13,339.17 |
+$730.18 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $274.58 | 48 | $13,179.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 10:05am ET | $288.97 | 48 | $13,870.40 | $14,029.97 |
+$690.80 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 10:05am ET | $279.50 | 50 | $13,975.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 10:05am ET | $279.83 | 50 | $13,991.42 | $14,046.39 |
+$16.42 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 11:10am ET | $247.70 | 56 | $13,871.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $263.48 | 56 | $14,755.07 | $14,930.26 |
+$883.87 (+6.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 10:05am ET | $247.50 | 60 | $14,850.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:40am ET | $230.14 | 60 | $13,808.40 | $13,888.66 |
$-1,041.60 (-7.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 10:05am ET | $247.50 | 60 | $14,850.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $261.48 | 60 | $15,688.80 | $14,727.46 |
+$838.80 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 11:20am ET | $263.67 | 55 | $14,502.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $242.38 | 55 | $13,330.90 | $13,556.24 |
$-1,171.22 (-8.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 12:05pm ET | $243.66 | 55 | $13,401.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $258.01 | 55 | $14,190.55 | $14,345.49 |
+$789.25 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 1:55pm ET | $318.37 | 45 | $14,326.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 1:50pm ET | $334.60 | 45 | $15,057.00 | $15,075.84 |
+$730.35 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$15,075.84
Net Profit/Loss:
+$5,075.84
Total Return:
+50.76%