Compendium › Reversion › AVGO
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AVGO
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 25 trades in period

-14.22%
Last 6 Months Return
$9,048.14
Current Value
48%
Win Rate
$10,547.59
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 19:08:36

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
32.7 neutral
20d Trend
-13.0%
5d Trend
-6.9%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
4.0%
Range Pos
10%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
7/3

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

13
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
8.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.7/10
Raw Quality 12.7/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 12.6

30-Day Momentum

1
-9.3%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-12 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,547.59
Current Value
$9,048.14
Period P&L
$-1,499.45
Max Drawdown
-10.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.07

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
25
Winners / Losers
12 / 13
Best Trade
+6.70%
Worst Trade
-14.16%
Avg Trade Return
-0.40%
Avg Hold Time
5.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$540,823.27
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,499.45
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,499.45
Gross Return
-14.22%
Net Return (after fees)
-14.22%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AVGO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 25 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,547.59 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 12:35pm ET $317.85 32 $10,171.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET $300.71 32 $9,622.72 $9,886.63 $-548.48
(-5.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
11.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:05pm ET $312.77 31 $9,695.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 12:25pm ET $329.50 31 $10,214.50 $10,405.26 +$518.63
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 3:00pm ET $349.37 29 $10,131.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET $368.85 29 $10,696.65 $10,970.18 +$564.92
(+5.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 9:45am ET $370.24 29 $10,736.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET $390.09 29 $11,312.61 $11,545.83 +$575.65
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 9:45am ET $396.64 29 $11,502.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 11:40am ET $417.35 29 $12,103.01 $12,146.27 +$600.44
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 1:05pm ET $424.93 28 $11,898.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 11:55am ET $394.82 28 $11,054.96 $11,303.05 $-843.22
(-7.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 11:55am ET $399.10 28 $11,174.80 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:40am ET $421.58 28 $11,804.24 $11,932.49 +$629.44
(+5.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
8 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 10:30am ET $415.88 28 $11,644.64 — — —
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 10:30am ET $434.76 28 $12,173.28 $12,461.13 +$528.64
(+4.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
9 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 3:55pm ET $425.13 29 $12,328.77 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $418.94 29 $12,149.26 $12,281.62 $-179.51
(-1.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10.7d held
10 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 9:35am ET $417.01 29 $12,093.15 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:40am ET $441.23 29 $12,795.67 $12,984.15 +$702.53
(+5.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 3:35pm ET $457.67 28 $12,814.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $488.34 28 $13,673.52 $13,842.91 +$858.76
(+6.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
17.9h held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 3:55pm ET $478.07 28 $13,385.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET $410.39 28 $11,490.78 $11,947.73 $-1,895.18
(-14.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $404.00 29 $11,715.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 12:10pm ET $375.69 29 $10,895.01 $11,126.79 $-820.94
(-7.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 9:35am ET $379.76 29 $11,012.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 11:15am ET $399.33 29 $11,580.57 $11,694.46 +$567.67
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 18, 2026 2:25pm ET $406.83 28 $11,391.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $378.00 28 $10,584.00 $10,887.22 $-807.24
(-7.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 1:20pm ET $381.77 28 $10,689.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $374.00 28 $10,472.00 $10,669.80 $-217.42
(-2.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
11.8d held
17 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $366.46 29 $10,627.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 10:00am ET $385.14 29 $11,169.06 $11,211.52 +$541.72
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
18 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 3:15pm ET $402.80 27 $10,875.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 3:40pm ET $372.90 27 $10,068.37 $10,404.15 $-807.37
(-7.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
19 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 3:15pm ET $402.80 27 $10,875.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET $381.86 27 $10,310.09 $9,838.50 $-565.65
(-5.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
20.8d held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET $385.37 25 $9,634.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 9:35am ET $408.15 25 $10,203.87 $10,408.13 +$569.63
(+5.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
21 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 9:35am ET $414.42 25 $10,360.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET $397.29 25 $9,932.25 $9,979.88 $-428.25
(-4.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
11d held
22 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $384.22 25 $9,605.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 1:25pm ET $357.30 25 $8,932.50 $9,306.83 $-673.05
(-7.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7.2d held
23 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 11:50am ET $370.05 25 $9,251.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:55am ET $343.54 25 $8,588.38 $8,643.96 $-662.87
(-7.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 1:35pm ET $353.82 24 $8,491.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 11:15am ET $371.64 24 $8,919.36 $9,071.64 +$427.68
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 11:25am ET $359.80 25 $8,995.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $358.86 25 $8,971.50 $9,048.14 $-23.50
(-0.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
11.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,048.14
Net Profit/Loss: $-951.86
Total Return: -9.52%
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